Fantasy Football Playoffs: Playing Against Bad Defenses

One of the tactics often employed in daily fantasy games is week-by-week analysis of opposing defenses.
Well, as the end of the season approaches, non-playoff NFL teams start playing their second-and-third string players, while some big-name players lose their fantasy "Midas touch" for the last couple weeks of the season.

Take the New York Jets, for example: out of playoff contention, they replaced starter Ryan Fitzpatrick with Bryce Petty, and have thrown more balls to Robbie Anderson than Brandon Marshall.
Petty and Anderson didn't make any impact through the season, but are replacing the value of well-known starters for the fantasy playoffs.

So, instead of relying on big-name starters during fantasy playoffs, a better strategy can be to analyze offensive matchups by looking for the worst defenses in the league.

Without further ado, here are the best defenses to play against this week in all the major statistical categories.

YPG (Yards per Game)

NFL 2016 Season (through 12/21/2016)

1. San Francisco 49ers (giving up 424.9 YPG)
2. Cleveland Browns (giving up 400.8 YPG)
3. Oakland Raiders (giving up 375.9 YPG)

Last 3 Weeks Only

1. San Francisco 49ers (giving up 426.7 YPG)
2. Washington Redskins (giving up 396.7 YPG)
3. Miami Dolphins (giving up 385.3 YPG)

Hot Take(s)

As everyone will see throughout this article, the Chip Kelly experiment has failed on a grand scale.
They are last in almost every large-scale defensive statistical category: for a franchise with such strong history, this is perhaps the worst possible turn the team could have made.

YPP (Yards per Play)

NFL 2016 Season (through 12/21/2016)

1. San Francisco 49ers (giving up 6.1 YPP)
2. Oakland Raiders (giving up 6.1 YPP)
3. Cleveland Browns (giving up 6.0 YPP)

Last 3 Weeks Only

1. New York Jets (giving up 6.4 YPP)
2. San Francisco 49ers (giving up 6.2 YPP)
3. New Orleans Saints (giving up 6.0 YPP)

Hot Take(s)

The Jets, as of late, have been a sieve on the defensive side of the ball, and facing the Patriots on Saturday won't help things.
Even the Bills (whose offense consists of Shady McCoy and his long-lost cousin, Shady McCoy) should find some semblance of success against them on January 1st.

PPG (Points per Game)

NFL 2016 Season (through 12/21/2016)

1. San Francisco 49ers (giving up 31.0 PPG)
2. Cleveland Browns (giving up 29.1 PPG)
3. New Orleans Saints (giving up 28.0 PPG)

Last 3 Weeks Only

1. Arizona Cardinals (giving up 32.3 PPG)
2. New York Jets (giving up 30.7 PPG)
3. Los Angeles Rams (giving up 30.7 PPG)

Hot Take(s)

Three of the four NFC West teams (SF, LA, and ARI) make up three of the four worst defenses in the NFL in the last three weeks in this category.
That's a sad state of affairs for a group of teams who used to be known for their strong defensive fronts.

YPR (Yards per Rush Attempt)

NFL 2016 Season (through 12/21/2016)

1. San Francisco 49ers (giving up 5 YPR)
2. Cleveland Browns (giving up 4.8 YPR)
3. Miami Dolphins (giving up 4.8 YPR)

Last 3 Weeks Only

1. Miami Dolphins (giving up 5.7 YPR)
2. Cleveland Browns (giving up 5.7 YPR)
3. Chicago Bears (giving up 5.7 YPR)

Hot Take(s)

The Bears, Browns, and Dolphins are all giving up 5.7 yards per rush over the course of the last three weeks.
In the context of the game, that means that their opponents only need two rush attempts (on average) to get a first down (and then some).
As long as they are healthy, start Robert Kelley (WAS), LeSean McCoy (BUF), Mike Gilislee (BUF), Kenneth Farrow (SD), and potential deep-sleeper Ronnie Hillman (SD) this weekend for lots of fantasy gold.

YPP (Yards per Pass Attempt)

NFL 2016 Season (through 12/21/2016)

1. San Francisco 49ers (giving up 7.6 Yards per Pass Attempt)
2. Green Bay Packers (giving up 7.5 Yards per Pass Attempt)
3. Oakland Raiders (giving up 7.5 Yards per Pass Attempt)

Last 3 Weeks Only

1. San Francisco 49ers (giving up 9.1 Yards per Pass Attempt)
2. New York Jets (giving up 8.7 Yards per Pass Attempt)
3. Arizona Cardinals (giving up 7.6 Yards per Pass Attempt)

Hot Take(s)

Basically, the 49ers have allowed opposing QB's a first down every time they have thrown a ball for the last few weeks, which is beyond pathetic: Jared Goff gets deep-sleeper streaming value based off that alone.
On top of that, Tyrod Taylor becomes a legit starting option for the last week of fantasy (week 17), and Russell Wilson becomes a good starter this week and next (vs. ARI, then SF).

Mid-season In-Depth Comparison: Wide Receivers

There are so many ways to measure anything you want to in the NFL: think about the multiple types of ratings for quarterbacks, the in-depth stats about wide receivers (like yards of separation per route run), and yards after contact where running backs are concerned.

But even if you're a hardcore stat-diver, your fantasy football team only cares about results: yards, touchdowns, receptions, and a few other categories.
That's not to say some of those "Next-Gen" stats aren't useful or predictive: we simply mean that the box score is what gets your team points.

Taking that into consideration, this article will dive into the both sides (the results AND the revealing stats) as it concerns the statistical leaders in multiple categories.

Be ready for some surprises: tracking football trends is how many players make smart roster decisions.

Wide Receivers

Targets (per game)

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Mike Evans (12.1)
2. Antonio Brown (10.9)
3. Larry Fitzgerald (10.6)
4. Allen Robinson (10.2)
5. A.J. Green (10.0)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Stefon Diggs (12.3)
2. Larry Fitzgerald (12.0)
3. Mike Evans (11.5)
4. Julian Edelman (11.3)
T-5. Jordy Nelson (11.3)
T-5. Jordan Matthews (11.3)
T-5. Antonio Brown (11.3)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who are targeted the most per game this season have a differential of 2.1, meaning that first-ranked Mike Evans is targeted two more times per game than fifth-ranked A.J. Green on average.
2. The reason why Edelman is ranked above Nelson, Matthews, and Brown even though they all have approximately 11.3 targets per game is because his targets per game was rounded down, while theirs were rounded up. He has received one more target over the last four games than the three other receivers just mentioned.

3. Allen Robinson is ranked 4th in targets per game for the season, and yet is ranked 30th for receptions per game on the season. This either means he is dropping balls like crazy, or QB Blake Bortles is wildly inaccurate. Bortles' stats in last week's article lend themselves towards the idea that he has regressed, not that Robinson has regressed as a WR.

Receptions (per game)

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Antonio Brown (7.7)
2. Stefon Diggs (7.4)
3. Larry Fitzgerald (7.4)
4. A.J. Green (6.6)
5. Mike Evans (6.5)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Stefon Diggs (10.0)
2. Antonio Brown (9.7)
3. Larry Fitzgerald (9.3)
4. Amari Cooper (9.0)
T-5. Julio Jones (7.0)
T-5. Golden Tate (7.0)
T-5. Jordan Matthews (7.0)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who catch the most passes per game this season only have a differential of 1.2, meaning that first-ranked Antonio Brown only catches one more ball per game than fifth-ranked Mike Evans on average.
2. Stefon Diggs has been catching the most balls in the league for the last four weeks, more than Brown, Fitzgerald, and Cooper. This is even more impressive when we consider that the Vikings rank 26th in the league in passing attempts, and only throw the ball an average of 34.4 times per game.
3. Jones, Tate, and Matthews are all tied for the 5th-most receptions per game during the last four weeks at 7 catches per game. Depending on your fantasy playoff schedule, it might be worth attempting to trade for a few of the folks on the above lists.

Receiving Yards (per game)

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Julio Jones (110.5)
2. A.J. Green (96.4)
3. Mike Evans (91.6)
4. Antonio Brown (90.7)
5. Amari Cooper (90.0)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Antonio Brown (101.5)
2. Amari Cooper (95.3)
3. Mike Evans (92.8)
4. Julio Jones (91.7)
5. Larry Fitzgerald (89.7)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who have the most receiving yards per game this season have a relatively large differential of 20.5, meaning that first-ranked Julio Jones gains approximately 20 more yards per game than fifth-ranked Amari Cooper on average.
2. Amari Cooper ranks on both these lists, and yet is only 13th in targets per game on the season. This is an indicator of a couple potential game styles: either (1) the Raiders' downfield shots are more successful than many teams, or (2) Cooper is such an incredible talent that he is doing more with his targets than many wideouts in the league.
3. Julio Jones' game against the Panthers back in the beginning of October (where he put up 300 yards on them) was bookended by his least-involved games of the year, and yet he still leads all other receivers in the league by at least 14 yards per game on the season. He is the definition of a generational talent.

Yards Per Catch

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Sammie Coates (21.2)
2. Julio Jones (18.1)
3. Kenny Stills (17.7)
4. Marvin Jones (17.4)
5. Tyrell Williams (16.7)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Victor Cruz (47.0)
2. Bryce Treggs (34.5)
3. Freddie Martino (26.0)
4. Chris Hogan (22.8)
5. Andre Roberts (22.5)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who have the most yards per catch per game this season have a differential of 4.5, meaning that first-ranked Sammie Coates gains approximately four-and-a-half more yards per catch than fifth-ranked Tyrell Williams on average.
2. A quick qualifier: many of these names do not lead the league in receiving. Instead, all stats are obtained from www.teamrankings.com, and they qualify the Season YPC as "on pace for at least 30 receptions", and the 4 Weeks YPC as "on pace for at least 3 receptions".
3. Julio Jones is the only receiver from previous lists to make this list, which reinforces the idea of him being a generational talent.
4. Keep an eye on Kenny Stills: he has had three games this season with at least 8 targets, and four games this season with a touchdown. If Tannehill keeps up his hot streak (100.7 QBR over the last five games vs. 80.9 over the first five), and especially if another WR goes down on their team, Stills could be in for heavier usage towards the end of the season.
5. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Marvin Jones, who averaged 9 targets per game for the first 4 games of the season, but has averaged 5.9 targets per game over the last 7 games. He has had as many as 11 targets in a game (vs. Vikings, Titans) or as few as 2 targets (vs. Jaguars).

Catch Rate

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Ty Montgomery (82.4%)
2. Cordarrelle Patterson (79.6%)
3. Cole Beasley (79.5%)
4. Tyreek Hill (78.3%)
5. Doug Baldwin (77.1%)

Last 4 Weeks Only

T-1. Charone Peake (100%)
T-1. Jordan Taylor (100%)
3. Ty Montgomery (88.9%)
4. Brandon Coleman (85.7%)
5. Mohamed Sanu (84.2%)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who have the highest catch rate this season have a differential of 5.3%, meaning that first-ranked Ty Montgomery catches a little more than five percent of his catches more than fifth-ranked Doug Baldwin on average.
2. Though Ty Montgomery has an extremely high catch rate and high usage in the last few games for the Packers, he also lost two fumbles in both the Cowboys game in mid-October and the Redskins game in late November.
3. Cole Beasley has been a high-usage player this season, but with Dez Bryant returning to form, he will likely remain useful only in PPR leagues.
4. Doug Baldwin is probably the biggest-name receiver to make it onto this list, once again confirming how efficient he is, and how the Seahawks should use him as the focal point of the offense alongside Jimmy Graham.

Mid-season In-Depth Comparison: Quarterbacks

There are so many ways to measure anything you want to in the NFL: think about the multiple types of ratings for quarterbacks, the in-depth stats about wide receivers (like yards of separation per route run), and yards after contact where running backs are concerned.

But even if you're a hardcore stat-diver, your fantasy football team only cares about results: yards, touchdowns, receptions, and a few other categories.
That's not to say some of those "Next-Gen" stats aren't useful or predictive: we simply mean that the box score is what gets your team points.

Taking that into consideration, this article will dive into the both sides (the results AND the revealing stats) as it concerns the statistical leaders in multiple categories.

Be ready for some surprises: it may be time to make a last-minute roster adjustment.

Quarterbacks

Passing Attempts (per game)

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 35.4

1. Blake Bortles (42.2)
2. Joe Flacco (42.1)
3. Drew Brees (42.0)
4. Carson Palmer (41.4)
5. Aaron Rodgers (41.0)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Carson Palmer (48.0)
2. Blake Bortles (46.8)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (45.5)
4. Aaron Rodgers (44.0)
5. Case Keenum (43.0)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five QB's who attempt the most passes per game this season only have a differential of 1.2, meaning that first-ranked Bortles only throws the ball approximately once a game more than fifth-ranked Rodgers.
2. The Jags have thrown the ball constantly, mostly due to the huge holes that Bortles has put them in. When Bortles throws, interceptions happen, and then they have to throw the ball more to have a chance of affecting the point deficit. It's a terrible cycle.
3. Flacco threw a ton for the first part of the season (and still does), but has thrown the ball about 4 times less per game than his season's average for the last few weeks, probably due to Baltimore's OC change when Marc Trestman was fired in October.
4. Palmer, on the other hand, has thrown the ball much more during the last few weeks: nearing 50 attempts per game! The past three games he has thrown the ball 49 times, 46 times, and 49 times, respectively.

Completions (per game)

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 22.8

1. Drew Brees (29.8)
T-2. Joe Flacco (26.3)
T-2. Kirk Cousins (26.3)
4. Derek Carr (26)
5. Aaron Rodgers (25.9)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Carson Palmer (31.3)
T-2. Ben Roethlisberger (30.0)
T-2. Kirk Cousins (30.0)
4. Drew Brees (29.6)
5. Aaron Rodgers (28.3)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five QB's who complete the most passes have a differential of 3.9, meaning that first-ranked Brees completes (on average) almost four more passes a game than fifth-ranked Aaron Rodgers.
2. Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins are not listed among the five QB's who attempt the most passes (either through this season or through only the last 4 weeks), and yet made their way onto the top five QB's in completions per game. This generally means they are performing at a higher level than some of the quarterbacks who were on the "Passing Attempts" list but are not on this one.
3. Due to the huge increase in passing volume during the last four weeks, Palmer and Roethlisberger made it onto both the "Passing Attempts" and "Completions" lists.

Completion Percentage

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 64.1%

1. Tom Brady (72.9%)
2. Drew Brees (71.0%)
3. Sam Bradford (69.6%)
4. Matt Ryan (68.2%)
5. Matthew Stafford (67.3%)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Drew Brees (75.9%)
T-2. Tom Brady (70.3%)
T-2. Kirk Cousins (70.3%)
4. Cody Kessler (69.6%)
5. Sam Bradford (69.0%)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five QB's who own the highest completion percentage in the league have a relatively large differential of 5.6%, meaning that first-ranked Brady completes approximately five percent more of his passes than fifth-ranked Stafford. That makes the last four weeks for Brees even more impressive, because he is completing 5.6% more of his passes than both Brady and Cousins (tied for second in these rankings).
2. Kessler makes the list for the last four weeks, though his 7.0 seasonal YPA is ranked 20th in the league in yards-per-attempt. Bradford actually makes both of these lists, though his 7.1 seasonal YPA puts him 16th in the league.
3. For comparison's sake, Brady is ranked 1st in the league so far this season with 9.8 YPA, and Brees is currently ranked 9th in the league with 7.8 YPA.

Passing Yards (per game)

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 261.9

1. Drew Brees (327.6)
2. Tom Brady (327.0)
3. Matt Ryan (324.7)
4. Carson Palmer (305.5)
5. Kirk Cousins (301.9)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Carson Palmer (360.3)
2. Kirk Cousins (340.33)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (336.0)
4. Philip Rivers (309.8)
5. Drew Brees (308.6)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five QB's who own the highest average passing yards per game are separated by a differential of 25.7, meaning that first-ranked Brees gains almost 26 more yards through the air each game than fifth-ranked Cousins.
2. Palmer is ranked first in this category for the last four weeks, which makes sense due to the Cardinals' significantly increased amount of passing attempts.
3. Philip Rivers finally makes it onto a list, mostly due to the game against the Falcons four weeks ago in which he threw for 371 yards.
4. Tom Brady, oddly enough, is ranked second in the league in this category, but has only been throwing for approximately 284 yards per game during the last four weeks, down 43 yards per game from his seasonal average.

Total Touchdowns

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 14.5

1. Drew Brees (27)
2. Aaron Rodgers (25)
3. Matt Ryan (24)
4. Marcus Mariota (23)
5. Ben Roethlisberger (21)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Drew Brees (13)
2. Marcus Mariota (12)
T-3. Jameis Winston (10)
T-3. Aaron Rodgers (10)
5. Matt Ryan (9)

Hot Take(s)

1. Brees is apparently the QB to own in fantasy, because he appears on basically every list in this article. Combined, this makes him beyond valuable on a week-to-week playing basis.
2. Marcus Mariota makes his first appearance on these lists. During the Titans' first four games, Mariota only averaged one TD per game. Over the last six games, he has averaged more than three touchdowns per game. Also, he has increased his passing yardage during the last six games by almost 30 yards a game. Trending upwards, he has the potential to make the Titans a darkhorse playoff contender.

Passer Rating

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 91.8

1. Tom Brady (125.5)
2. Matt Ryan (115.1)
3. Drew Brees (106.4)
4. Dak Prescott (106.2)
5. Matthew Stafford (101.6)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Tom Brady (117.1)
2. Marcus Mariota (116.3)
3. Matt Ryan (110.9)
4. Dak Prescott (110.6)
5. Drew Brees (110.3)

Hot Take(s)

1. Tom Brady tops both these lists, though his passer rating in the last four weeks is 8 points lower than his season's average.
2. Prescott finally makes a list, and the fact that he is not ranked in the top five QB's for any of the other categories means that he isn't throwing the ball a ton, but he does have an above-average completion percentage and a top-five YPA. This, combined with the fact that he has only thrown two interceptions all season, means that he is being extremely efficient with the ball. Finally, he actually has the third-highest amount of touchdowns per game during the last four weeks, meaning that his efficiency has carried over into scoring as well.

Hit The Waiver Wire: Week 11

For those of us who stick with our fantasy seasons through thick and thin (no matter how our season has gone), every week is an opportunity, and every Wednesday brings investigation to find hidden values on the waiver wire.

Below, we've done the research for you and found potential waiver wire gems, and made the case as to why they belong in your starting lineup: all points listed are based on ESPN Standard Scoring.

Good hunting!

Week 11 Waiver Wire Quarterbacks

1. Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)

Week 10 situation

     -The 49ers battled it out with the Arizona Cardinals, and nearly won thanks to Kaepernick's best game of the season. He passed for 210 yards and a TD, and also rushed for 55 yards and another TD, which resulted in a very healthy 23 point game. This is the 2nd week in a row that Kap has exceeded 20 points, and he hasn't scored below 13 points in any of his starts.

Reason for fantasy relevance

     -As long as Kap remains the starter, his athleticism is worthy of fantasy consideration. He faces the Patriots next, who were just shredded by Russell Wilson and company on the ground as well as in the air. If New England happens to have a slight mid-season stumble, it could be against mobile quarterbacks. Even if they don't, garbage time is as good as any time for fantasy purposes, and the 49ers are definitely garbage.

Do you already have a better option?

     -Probably, though Kap has upside that most mid-tier fantasy QB's lack. Averaging 18.5 points per start, there are worse options out there.

2. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

Week 10 situation

     -The Ravens beat the Browns handily (as per every other team this season), and it resulted in Flacco throwing for 296 yards and three touchdowns, though he also threw 2 picks and only picked up 3 yards on the ground. That 21-point outing ties for his highest score which happened back in week 4 against the Oakland Raiders.

Reason for fantasy relevance

     -Nobody trusts Flacco in fantasy anymore, least of all me. But he's only had one game below 11 points, and has had two of his better games coming out of the bye week. The Cowboys don't have the world's best defense, though it is ranked 8th in PPG (points per game) and 12th in YPG (total yards per game). That Dallas defense is slightly weaker when faced with a passing game, falling all the way to 21st in the NFL.

Do you already have a better option?

     -I sincerely hope so. Flacco is averaging just under 14 points per start, and isn't going to be winning you any championships by himself.

Week 11 Waiver Wire Running Backs

1. C.J. Prosise (Seattle Seahawks)

Week 10 situation

     -That came out of nowhere. After having one good game versus the Saints back in week 8, Prosise racked up yardage against the Patriots, rushing for 66 yards and catching seven passes for 87 more. The only fantasy letdown was that he didn't get into the endzone, though he was close multiple times. He took Christine Michael's job handily.

Reason for fantasy relevance

     -Christine Michael is now with the Packers. Alex Collins is a rookie who plays like a rookie. Preseason darling Troymaine Pope was just elevated from the practice squad. Thomas Rawls is just returning from a semi-long-term injury. Do any of those options sound like reliable and exciting fantasy options to you? Plus, being a converted wideout, Prosise knows how to run routes and is more of a pass-catching back anyways. He could be a PPR god.

Do you already have a better option?

     -Not in your Flex spot, especially in PPR leagues. Even if his touches are reduced to 8-10 per game plus 4-6 targets in the passing game, there is more than enough volume there to bet on.

2. Robert Kelley (Washington Redskins)

Week 10 situation

     -Kelley, a rookie RB for the 'Skins, just played the Vikings and carried the rock 22 times for 97 yards for a healthy 4.4 YPC. He lost two yards on his only catch of the night. His 9 points could have been much higher if there was a touchdown involved.

Reason for fantasy relevance

     -Matt Jones has had some fumbling issues, and has apparently not ingratiated himself with the coaching staff, which resulted in him being a healthy scratch last week. Chris Thompson is only a passing-down back. That leaves Kelley to own this backfield, and own it he has. He looked good last week and in the match versus Cincinnati in week 8 before their bye, so pick him up before anyone else grabs him.

Do you already have a better option?

     -Probably not. There are very limited opportunities to grab an RB with a 20-carry per-game workload this late in the season. Get him.

Week 11 Waiver Wire Wide Receivers

1. Rishard Matthews (Tennessee Titans)

Week 10 situation

     -Matthews has scored six touchdowns in his last six games, including another one last week as he added three more receptions for 63 yards for a 12-point outing. The Titans seem to be clicking on offense, and it shows on the field where they put up 47 points against the Packers. That's a college ball score, and rarely seen in the NFL.

Reason for fantasy relevance

     -Mariota has gotten significantly better as the season has gone on, with a reliable running game and some wideouts who are developing into their own, including Matthews. The amount of touchdowns he has put up recently is leading most wide receivers, and he faces a weak Colts' defense next week: they are ranked 31st against the pass and give up the 4th-most overall points per game.

Do you already have a better option?

     -Maybe, but you want him if you have an open bench spot.  Since week 4, he is averaging over 10 points per outing, which is totally acceptable for a Flex spot, and he gets more points than that in PPR leagues.

2. Cameron Meredith (Chicago Bears)

Week 10 situation

     -Da Bears lost handily to the Buccaneers, scoring only 10 points against Tampa Bay's 36. Nonetheless, Meredith's only reception went for 50 yards and a touchdown, which is a pretty good way to make an impact.

Reason for fantasy relevance

     -You've seen his name before when he put up 17 points in week 5 versus Indy, and 11 points the week afterwards versus the Jags. His name comes back up because Alshon Jeffery is now suspended four games for a PED violation. This leaves either Royal or Meredith as the de facto #1 receiver, and Meredith has had success in that role before. Even if he continues to function as the second WR, his targets should only increase.

Do you already have a better option?

     -Potentially, but I would be putting money on him in daily leagues and in season-long leagues for the next four weeks. When he is targeted often, he puts up points. Don't let Cutler put you off from this potential goldmine.

Tracking The Top Ten Fantasy QB's: Week 8

We're into the 8th week of the standard fantasy football season.
Having reached the midpoint of the season, it seems as good a time as any to dig into some fantasy statistics.

Today, we'll dive into the top ten QB's fantasy stats, projections, and advice for the upcoming weeks.
The goal is to provide (1) an edge for those seeking mid-season blockbuster trades, and (2) sit-start advice, especially for smaller leagues.

I've designed graphs for each QB tracking their fantasy points for the season.
Since data can be interpreted in so many ways, we will be removing all outside factors (interceptions, opposing defenses, injuries, etc.) for the initial observations, and then diving deeper throughout the analysis.
I've added one adjusted stat for each QB called "TD-TO Ratio", which stands for "Total Touchdown to Total Turnovers Ratio".
Because not all touchdowns come through the air, and because not all turnovers are interceptions (e.x. fumbles), I feel this is a more accurate fantasy football score indicator.

Let's see what advice these numbers hold in store for us.

1. Matt Ryan

Total Points: 175 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 21.9
TD-TO Ratio: 19-5
Previous Opponent: Tampa Bay
Upcoming Opponent: Philadelphia
Advice: Due to Thursday Night Football, we've already seen Ryan destroy the Bucs, though that game was not put into our numbers so that every QB is measured against the same standard. Next up, the Eagles' defense is ranked 4th in PPG, 8th in YPG, 5th in Passing YPG, and 20th in Rushing YPG. We can assume at this point in the season that those stats paint an accurate picture as to how their defense is currently playing. Since their weakness is against the run, this may be more of a Freeman-Coleman game as opposed to a heavy passing game. Matt Ryan should be considered the #1 fantasy QB for the rest of the season.

2. Andrew Luck

Total Points: 163 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 20.4
TD-TO Ratio: 17-8
Previous Opponent: Kansas City
Upcoming Opponent: Green Bay
Advice: The Packers defense ranks 15th in PPG, 7th in YPG, 16th in Passing YPG, and 2nd in Rushing YPG. This reveals a generally middling defense when defending the pass, and since they have generally shut down opponents' rushing attack, that means Luck will likely be throwing the ball early and often. He's as good a play as anyone this week.

3. Drew Brees

Total Points: 157 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 22.4
TD-TO Ratio: 19-6
Previous Opponent: Seahawks
Upcoming Opponent: San Francisco
Advice: Because the Saints have already had their bye week, this placement is a bit skewed. Brees is actually leading all QB's in fantasy points per game, scoring more on average than Matt Ryan. The 49ers defense currently ranks 32nd in PPG, 30th in YPG, 7th in Passing YPG, and 32nd in Rushing YPG. Chip Kelly coaches a terrible team. Brees has a good chance to be the #1 scorer in fantasy football this week.

4. Derek Carr

Total Points: 156 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 19.5
TD-TO Ratio: 17-5
Previous Opponent: Tampa Bay
Upcoming Opponent: Denver
Advice: Denver's strong defense is currently ranked 5th in PPG, 3rd in YPG, 1st in Passing YPG, and 23rd in Rushing YPG. Because of the disparity between the passing and rushing YPG ranks, the Raiders may take to the group more often for this matchup. Nonetheless, based on their insanely strong passing attack, Carr may be one of the few QB's able to pull off a strong fantasy game versus the Broncos.

5. Matthew Stafford

Total Points: 148 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 18.5
TD-TO Ratio: 16-5
Previous Opponent: Houston
Upcoming Opponent: Minnesota
Advice: Though the Vikings are struggling mightily on offense, their defense is still extremely strong: they are currently ranked 1st in PPG, 2nd in YPG, 4th in Passing YPG, and 9th in Rushing YPG. They don't have a glaring weakness, though they weren't perfect last week when Jordan Howard gashed them for some big gains. This is a tough team to throw on, but Stafford is one of the top fantasy QB's in this league. You probably aren't sitting him.

6. Aaron Rodgers

Total Points: 146 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 20.9
TD-TO Ratio: 19-7
Previous Opponent: Atlanta
Upcoming Opponent: Indianapolis
Advice: Once again, because of the bye week issue, Rodgers should be ranked higher. He would be the 3rd overall QB based on average PPG alone. After posting his highest fantasy score of the year last week versus Atlanta, A-Rod now faces the Colts' defense which ranks 27th in PPG, 29th in YPG, 30th in Passing YPG, and 21st in Rushing YPG. Rodgers is a top-3 QB option this week.

7. Andy Dalton

Total Points: 140 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 17.5
TD-TO Ratio: 11-4
Previous Opponent: Washington
Upcoming Opponent: BYE, then NYG
Advice: Cincinnati is coming up on their bye week. Afterwards, Dalton will face a New York defense ranked 10th in PPG, 17th in YPG, 22nd in Passing YPG, and 11 in Rushing YPG. This middle-of-the-road defense won't present the biggest challenge in the world to the team, and the Red Rifle should put up another 17-18 points against them.

8. Kirk Cousins

Total Points: 136 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 17
TD-TO Ratio: 13-8
Previous Opponent: Cincinnati
Upcoming Opponent: BYE, then Minnesota
Advice: Washington is also coming up on their bye week. Afterwards, Cousins will face a strong Minnesota defense ranked 1st in PPG, 2nd in YPG, 4th in Passing YPG, and 9th in Rushing YPG. This challenge may be too much for Kirk, as he commits too many turnovers, and his running game does too. Consider another streaming option that week.

9. Marcus Mariota

Total Points: 135 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 16.9
TD-TO Ratio: 15-9
Previous Opponent: Jacksonville
Upcoming Opponent: San Diego
Advice: Mariota could have had huge numbers last week versus the Jaguars, but was basically done with the game by halftime considering the score. The Chargers' defense ranks 24th in PPG, 18th in YPG, 23rd in Passing YPG, and 6th in Rushing YPG. The stats don't tell the whole story, since the defense has actually become semi-good since Joey Bosa got on the field. Nonetheless, these games tend to turn into shoot-outs, and Mariota has been miles better in the last few weeks. He should be considered a strong play.

10. Tyrod Taylor

Total Points: 131 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 16.4
TD-TO Ratio: 12-3
Previous Opponent: New England
Upcoming Opponent: Seattle
Advice: This is a difficult stretch for the Bills. Nobody wants to play the Patriots and then play the Seahawks the week afterwards. The Seahawks' defense currently ranks 2nd in PPG, 6th in YPG, 9th in Passing YPG, and 7th in Rushing YPG. Seattle has some major injuries on the defensive side of the ball (looking at you, Michael Bennett), but Shady McCoy may not be up to speed for the Bills either. Find another option if possible this week.

Midseason Top-5 Positional Rankings

As a generality, people don't like change.
They like plans, and having some degree of follow-through.
Conversely, people love risk.
Not actual risk, mind you, but situations that APPEAR to be risky, even though the outcome is pre-determined in their favor.
When things are actually unpredictable, such as in fantasy football, we get responses like this:

Yo I dislike Fantasy football man it's way too unpredictable everyone I finally quit on balling on the pine

— Broke Boiardee (@NutE_One7) October 30, 2016

I don't know what's more unpredictable, my life or fantasy football

— Sterling (@Sterling_Thomas) October 30, 2016

Fantasy football this season has been so unpredictable in all the worst ways

— Michael Gentile (@michaelpgentile) October 30, 2016

Running Backs

(or, more accurately, "Limping Backs")

Adrian Peterson.
Arian Foster.
Jamaal Charles.
CJ Anderson.
Eddie Lacy.
Bad season for RB's.#FantasyFootball#NFL

— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 2, 2016

Top 5 RB's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. David Johnson - 149 points
2. DeMarco Murray - 135 points
3. Melvin Gordon - 128 points
4. Ezekiel Elliott - 117 points
5. LeGarrette Blount - 112 points

Currently, only two RB's who held a 1st-round ADP in 12-team leagues are currently in the top 5 (Johnson and Elliott).
Murray's ADP was in the early 5th round, Gordon's ADP was in the mid-6th round, and Blount was being drafted in the late 9th round.
This is why some fantasy pundits hold to the "zero-RB" draft strategy: not that they refuse to draft running backs, but they would rather find value in the mid and late rounds.
Nonetheless, two of these players are returning solid value on their position, and many had more consistent scores than their early-round WR counterparts.

Wide Receivers

(who should form a band called "The Kings of Inconsistency")

#FantasyFootball fact of the day:

Midway through the #NFL season, 6 RB's have more points than the top fantasy WR (#ESPN Standard Scoring).

— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 2, 2016

Top 5 WR's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Julio Jones - 105 points
2. A.J. Green - 104 points
3. Mike Evans - 94 points
4. T.Y. Hilton - 92 points
5. Michael Crabtree - 91 points

Based on 12-team league ADP's, two of the above WR's were drafted in the 1st-round (Jones and Green), but many fantasy owners have been severely disappointed at their lack of consistency.
Julio Jones has scored 12 or more points on five separate occasions, but he was held to only 1 or 2 points in the other three games.
Similarly, A.J. Green has scored 12 or more points on four different occasions, but was held to 8 or less points for the other half of his schedule.
Looking at the ESPN Live Draft results, Evans was being picked (on average) in the early 3rd round, Hilton in the mid-4th round, and Crabtree was becoming a value steal in the 8th round.
Many other wide receivers have fallen significantly from the lofty expectations placed on them by fantasy owners: though Antonio Brown isn't doing terribly (currently 7th-ranked WR), OBJ (currently 12th-ranked WR) and DeAndre Hopkins (currently 31st-ranked WR) have both fallen well short of their 1st-round ADP's.

Quarterbacks

(preferably, all of our buy-in money back)

Positional #FantasyFootball comparison (#NFL week 8):

Top QB: 175 pts

Top RB: 149 pts

Top WR: 105 pts

Top TE: 74 pts#FFF8

— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 9, 2016

Top 5 QB's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Matt Ryan - 175 points
2. Andrew Luck - 163 points
3. Drew Brees - 157 points
4. Derek Carr - 156 points
5. Matthew Stafford - 148 points

ADP reveals so much about the fantasy community's trust in players' production, and also how misplaced it is.
Though no quarterback had an ADP above the 16th overall pick (early 2nd-round), only two of these QB's were taken in the top 10 overall at their position.
Drew Brees was the 4th QB taken with an ADP in the 4th round, and Andrew Luck's was nearly identical.
Then we wait.
The next QB taken from this list was Stafford in the 9th round, with Carr only a couple spots behind.
And finally, "Matty Ice" was the 21st overall quarterback taken, and had an ADP in the 10th round.
The first three QB's taken on average?
Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.
Swing-and-a-miss.

Tight Ends

(the perpetual disappointments of the family)

The top #NFL #FantasyFootball TE (Greg Olsen) has about the same amount of points as:
1. 30th-ranked QB
2. 19th-ranked RB
3. 13th-ranked WR

— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 3, 2016

Top 5 TE's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Greg Olsen - 74 points
2. Rob Gronkowski - 64 points
3. Martellus Bennett - 60 points
4. Jordan Reed - 57 points
5. Delanie Walker - 56 points

The ADP for tight ends was much more predictive in its accuracy.
Four of the first five drafted TE's are on this list at the midseason checkpoint, which is a good sign for fantasy owners who invested semi-early for their TE.
The downside is that even a good TE (outside of the insanity of the Gronk machine) compares poorly to all other skill positions.
Olsen was drafted in the 4th round, Gronk was the earliest drafted TE with an ADP in the early 2nd round, Reed could be had in the late 3rd round, and Walker was being taken in the late 5th round.
The "surprise" man on this list is Bennett, who essentially was Gronkowski for the first few weeks of the season, and was a value pick in the 10th round.

Jaguars vs. Titans Fantasy Breakdown

Tonight's podcast dives into a basic preview of the fantasy football implications and predictions of the upcoming Thursday night battle between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans.
I'll be going over the following basic questions:

1. Who has the edge (for fantasy purposes) between Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota?

2. What kind of RB's could be starting options for Thursday night's game?

3. Can fantasy players count on any pass catchers from either of these teams?

Podcast can be found HERE.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Game Preview

The first podcast for Fantasy Football Fanatic is up!
For this post, we bring in life-long Seahawks fan and Seattle-ite Nathan Jacobsen.
He will be giving us his opinion as we look at the upcoming game against the Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, October 23rd).
We'll be addressing the following questions in the podcast: enjoy!

1. If both teams were fully healthy right now, how would Arizona's offense stack up against Seattle's defense?

2. And what about the opposite, Seattle's offense versus Arizona's defense?

3. How do you think the injuries to each team will affect gameplans and the final outcome?

4. What's your prediction for this Sunday?

5. Any Fantasy Football thoughts that our readers should take note of?

Podcast can be found HERE.

Tracking The Top Ten Fantasy QB's: Week 5

We're into the 6th week of the standard fantasy football season.
Mid-season has brought injuries, waiver-wire pickups and drops, and many trades in multiple leagues.

Today, we'll take a peek at ten QB's fantasy stats, projections, and advice for the upcoming weeks.
The goal is to provide (1) an edge for those seeking mid-season blockbuster trades, and (2) sit-start advice, especially for smaller leagues.

I've designed graphs for each QB tracking their fantasy points for the season.
Since data can be interpreted in so many ways, we will be removing all outside factors (interceptions, opposing defenses, injuries, etc.) for the initial observations, and then diving deeper

Let's dive into the midst of these numbers and charts to see if we can glean some advice.

1. Matt Ryan

Total Points: 119 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 23.8
Strength of Schedule: 1st (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Seahawks
Advice: Playing any QB versus the Hawks is a bet in itself. Be prepared for well-below-average production. If he does well against their defense this week, there is nothing he can't do, and should then be considered the #1 fantasy QB for the rest of the season.

2. Ben Roethlisberger

Total Points: 110 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 22
Strength of Schedule: 23rd (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Dolphins
Advice: The Dolphins don't scare anyone currently, and Big Ben has a higher ceiling than almost any other QB. He is already in the mix for the top fantasy QB of the season. Expect good things.

3. Derek Carr

Total Points: 100 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 20
Strength of Schedule: 15th
Upcoming Opponent: Chiefs
Advice: Kansas City's defense had its stats padded by all the interceptions against Ryan "Sixpatrick", but then crashed the week after in a loss to the Steelers. Carr has been consistent, and is looking like an easy top-5 fantasy QB every week.

4. Andrew Luck

Total Points: 95 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 19
Strength of Schedule: 22nd
Upcoming Opponent: Texans
Advice: Outside of the crazy crash that Luck experienced from week 1 to week 2, he has improved fantasy-wise each game. The Texans D/ST has basically gone the other way. No Watt = no worries for this week's play at QB.

T-5. Philip Rivers

Total Points: 91 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 18.2
Strength of Schedule: 13th
Upcoming Opponent: Broncos
Advice: No QB has had a ton of success against Denver's defense, so it was no surprise that Rivers only put up 11 points against them in the Thursday Night Football showing this week. That should remain his floor for the rest of the season.

T-5. Matthew Stafford

Total Points: 91 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 18.2
Strength of Schedule: 27th (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Rams
Advice: The Rams have an obvious limit on how many points they can put up, especially against prepared defenses. Their main strength is their defense, and without Riddick as a passing-down back in this game, be prepared for a below-average return from Stafford in terms of fantasy points.

7. Dak Prescott

Total Points: 83 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 16.6
Strength of Schedule: 27th (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Packers
Advice: This is my one of my favorite graphs to look at. Maybe the rookie won't win you your fantasy league by himself, but he can't really be blamed for any losses. The Packer's run defense is legit, so they may make Dak do more in this game instead of pounding the rock with Elliott. Until proven otherwise, Prescott is a safe bet.

8. Drew Brees

Total Points: 81 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 20.25
Strength of Schedule: 4th
Upcoming Opponent: Panthers
Advice: Information, data, and statistics all have limits on their face-value effectiveness, and this shows it pretty clearly. Brees per-game averages would make him the #2 fantasy QB, but because of the bye week, he drops a ways. Keep playing him, especially against the Panthers' weak secondary.

9. Andy Dalton

Total Points: 80 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 16
Strength of Schedule: 27th (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Patriots
Advice: Andy Dalton is exactly what you'd expect from Andy Dalton: need I say more? Though New England's defense is formidable, they have some significant red-zone issues. Play Dalton if you need to.

10. Aaron Rodgers

Total Points: 79 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 19.75
Strength of Schedule: 32nd
Upcoming Opponent: Cowboys
Advice: Once again, bye weeks can mess up how we look at data. Based on per-game averages alone, Rodgers would be the #5 overall QB through the first 5 weeks, which is quite a jump from this position. The Cowboys are known for their "bend, but don't break" mentality on defense, but that shouldn't play a factor when putting Rodgers in your lineup: if you have him, he's playing.

Week 5 Team Updates

Time for another moment of accountability: as per my previous articles, I intend to be an open book when it comes to my season in fantasy football.
Accountability is easiest when readers can see exactly what went down each week, so I've put screenshots of each week below (while maintaining anonymity for all other parties involved).

First up, the Yahoo 10-team PPR league.

                                                            WEEK 3

                                                            WEEK 4

                                                             WEEK 5

And now for the ESPN 12-team standard league.

                     WEEK 3

                     WEEK 4

                     WEEK 5

Current overall record:
3-2 in Yahoo
5-0 in ESPN