Sunday, May 22, 2016

Final Potential Free Agent Signings (That Will Affect Your Fantasy Football Draft)


How are these guys still unsigned?

One of the constant surprises of every off-season is not necessarily the players that get signed right away, but the ones that don't.

Some players need to recover from injuries, some just need the market to cool off and reach a semi-reasonable point for teams' salary situations and contract bargains to align, but some (un)signings are still mysteries to the most involved football fanatic.

Let's look at a few of the top players left on the market, and how they could potentially affect this year's fantasy draft.

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB)


Height: 6'2     Weight: 223     Age: 33     Years in NFL: 11

Career Completion: 60.1%          2015 Completion: 59.6%

Career Passing TD's: 154           2015 Passing TD's: 31

Career INT's: 116                        2015 INT's: 15

Career Rating: 80.8                     2015 Rating: 88

How can we not talk about Fitzpatrick first?
He had a career year, earning more than a 2:1 TD to INT ratio passing, while also rushing for two more and proving his veteran leadership skills by earning the allegiances of most of his teammates.
Of course, though Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and others say they aren't worried about this contract negotiation and that it'll work itself out, Marshall didn't exactly sound comfortable about the Plan B QB option, instead joking about Matt Forte throwing touchdowns.

If Fitz signs with the Jets again this year, expect Marshall and Decker to be as good, if not better than their stats last year (109/1502/14 and 80/1027/12, respectively).
Marshall would be worth 1st or 2nd round consideration, and Decker wouldn't be too far behind.
On the other hand, if this deal doesn't get done, BEWARE: the starting QB options then become Geno Smith (27 TD to 35 INT career ratio), Bryce Petty (Jets' 2015 4th round draft pick), or Christian Hackenberg (Jets' 2016 2nd round draft pick).
Both star wideouts should then drop considerably on draft boards, and though Marshall may still be worth a relatively high draft pick, Decker would not be viable in the first few rounds.


2. Anquan Boldin (WR)

Height: 6'1     Weight: 220     Age: 35     Years in NFL: 13

Career Catches: 1,009            2015 Catches: 69

Career Yds: 13,195                 2015 Yds: 789

Career Rec TD's: 74               2015 Rec TD's: 4

Career Yds/Rec: 13.1              2015 Yds/Rec: 11.4

The definition of steady, Boldin has caught at least 56 passes every year in the NFL, and has never had less than 623 yards receiving.
In fact, he has had seven different seasons with more than 1,000 yards receiving, including the last two years in San Francisco with the 49ers.
This last year, despite being in his mid-30's and dealing with a terrible QB situation (a severly regressed Colin Kaepernick and, well, Blaine Gabbert), he still caught nearly 70 balls for nearly 800 yards.
 

Boldin still likely will get a decent contract no matter where he signs, as he is worth well above the veteran minimum, which means he will need to sign with a team that has some cap space.
If he signs with a team with a good QB situation, he could pan out as great mid-round draft pick, as he can still very much be a viable No. 2 receiver and even function as a No. 1 if necessary in certain situations.
If Boldin signs anywhere else, or maybe with a team with an up-and-coming QB (Jaguars, Titans, Bills, Buccaneers, Raiders, etc.), he will raise that QB's value in the fantasy draft, but may not have much value himself: he will likely function as a safety blanket and mentor in those types of situations, though he may still be worth a late-round flier.


3. Arian Foster (RB)

Height: 6'1     Weight: 227     Age: 29     Years in NFL: 7

Career Rush Yds: 6,472            2015 Rush Yds: 163

Career Rec Yds: 2,268              2015 Rec Yds: 227

Career Total TD's: 68                2015 Total TD's: 3

Career Yds/Carry: 4.5               2015 Yds/Carry: 2.6

Foster is talented and can still make a difference on a team.
That being said, his immediate prospects are dimmed because (1) he's a running back who is over 28 years old and (2) he has a significant injury history, including this recent season (torn Achilles tendon).
Nonetheless, when healthy, he is one of the best running backs in the league, as recently as 2014, where he earned 1,246 yards rushing and added another 327 yards receiving while scoring 13 total TD's: and that was in only 13 games!


Teams will consider his lengthy and varied injury history, his age, and the natural wear-and-tear of his position before signing Foster to a contract of any length.
Even so, he should be signed by a team that needs a reliable veteran in the backfield, though in this case, he will likely no longer be the workhorse for any team.
Depending on where he signs, he could be a late-round steal, but is probably not worth more than a mid-round pick at any point: we'll know more once he officially signs with a team.