The infamous decline of the fantasy football running back is one of the most-discussed off-season topics among all fantasy players.
Running backs used to be the most-drafted position in the first round, but that has slowly changed over the last 3-4 years as team philosophies have shifted and the fantasy football community has become more aware of the challenges that running backs face.
Of course, the unique challenge that presents itself to the actual RB position is that it revolves around, well, physically running into opposing defenses a good portion of the time: much more often than your typical wide-out or quarterback.
This results in a potential increase to injuries, and a potential decrease to shelf-life.
Other common factors in poor performances among the top running backs can include:
1. A bad QB (who can't distract from the running game, thus allowing the opponents to game-plan around stopping the run)
2. A cannon-armed QB (who has only memorized the "go" routes)
3. Age (let me tote the rock 20 times a game after I get another hip replacement)
4. Multiple-RB backfields ("It's my turn!" "No, it's my turn!" "I want a turn!" "Share, children, or you'll all be in time-out and we'll send in Orleans Darkwa.")
This all being said, there are off-field concerns as well, often known as the "common sense test".
There are three suspensions that are currently affecting running back rosters in the NFL for the upcoming season:
1. Karlos Williams, BUF
-4 games, substance abuse
2. Bernard Peirce, NYJ
-2 games, reason unknown
3. Le'Veon Bell, PIT
-4 games, missed drug test
-Appealing to reduce suspension
Obviously, Le'Veon Bell is the biggest name on that list, and his suspension could impact fantasy drafts immediately.
Every day, more news comes out around injuries or holdouts or off-field concerns.
To keep up-to-date, most fantasy fanatics will want to download at least one NFL news app to their mobile device (Bleacher Report, Yahoo Sports, etc.).
Each team keeps more than one RB, and most of the time even the best running backs can be given a rest or three during a game, giving the second-stringer a chance to get in a couple reps.
The following article will examine the backfields that are clear-cut, as well as the ones that have less definition than a Jackson Pollock painting.
Arizona Cardinals (ARI)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Andre Ellington
2. Chris Johnson
3. David Johnson
4. Elijhaa Penny
5. Stepfan Taylor
6. Kerwynn Williams
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. David Johnson
2. Chris Johnson
3. Andre Ellington
Over the course of the last few years, Andre was the lead back for portions of 2013 and 2014, while Chris took over for the first part of 2015, and David ended 2015 on top.
Based on the current hype train, I lean towards David Johnson being a safe 1st or 2nd-round draft pick, while Chris Johnson will be his immediate backup.
Ellington will still make the team, but he will be the backup to a backup, and likely won't see the field much.
Atlanta Falcons (ATL)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Tevin Coleman
2. Devonta Freeman
3. Gus Johnson
4. Terron Ward
5. Brandon Wilds
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Devonta Freeman
2. Tevin Coleman
3. ?
Freeman started out sharing the backfield with Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers back in 2014, then earned the starting role in 2015 and shined brightly, finishing last season as #1 fantasy running back in all formats.
Coleman had quite a bit of hype last year, but will likely be a backup to Freeman, and shouldn't be on anyone's draft board before the later rounds.
The Falcons' 3rd 'back spot is up for grabs.
Baltimore Ravens (BAL)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Javiorius Allen
2. Kenneth Dixon
3. Justin Forsett
4. Stephen Houston
5. Lorenzo Taliaferro
6. Terrance West
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Justin Forsett
2. Javorius Allen
3. Terrance West
4. Kenneth Dixon
Forsett has had one of the more interesting journeys in the NFL, and was a Pro-Bowl player in 2014.
His 2015 season was cut short with a broken arm, leaving Allen to be the starter in his place.
The Ravens also spent a 4th-round draft pick on Dixon, but he has been hurt at training camp, and both West and Taliaferro have quite a bit of on-field experience, so one of them will also likely make the team, if not both.
I'm not sure how high of a draft pick I would spend on Forsett (he only had a few good games last year before he went down, he's 30, and apparently Buck Allen and Terrance West have looked good at camp), so I'm tentatively saying 4th-round.
Buffalo Bills (BUF)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Reggie Bush
2. Mike Gillislee
3. Boom Herron
4. LeSean McCoy
5. James Wilder, Jr.
6. Jonathan Williams
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. LeSean McCoy
2. Reggie Bush
3. Jonathan Williams
4. Karlos Williams (SUS)
As a 5th-round pick and a rookie last season, Karlos Williams had some fantastic moments that led to wonderings about him becoming the next starter in Buffalo: unfortunately, he is suspended for the first four games of this year, so that's not something we can dig into too deeply right now.
McCoy becomes the starter once again by default, and isn't a bad option at all: consider a 3rd or 4th rounder on him as well.
Bush will probably be the backup, and if the current news holds, he may also be the punt returner.
Jonathan Williams was the Bills' 5th-round pick this year, but was arrested on suspicion of DWI earlier this year, so we'll see if that affects how much he is on the field at some point in this season.
Carolina Panthers (CAR)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Cameron Artis-Payne
2. Jalen Simmons
3. Jonathan Stewart
4. Brandon Wegher
5. Fozzy Whittaker
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Jonathan Stewart
2. Cameron Artis-Payne
3. Fozzy Whittaker
Stewart is one of the toughest runners in the league today, on a Super Bowl-caliber team: draft him in the early rounds, and don't look back.
Cameron seems set as the backup behind him at this point (according to multiple sportswriters', like this one and this one), but Whittaker and Wegher may be fighting for a roster spot.
Chicago Bears (CHI)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Ka'Deem Carey
2. Jordan Howard
3. Jeremy Langford
4. Senorise Perry
5. Jacquizz Rodgers
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Jeremy Langford
2. Ka'Deem Carey
3. Jordan Howard
4. Jacquizz Rodgers
"Da Bears" had one of the greatest running backs of this decade on their roster until this last year, when they released Matt Forte, who promptly joined the New York Jets, and is probably not looking back.
Langford, who filled in last season as Forte's respite runner, is the likely early-season starter at this point, but may end up giving some carries to both Carey (a training camp favorite) and Howard (Chicago's 5th-round pick this year).
Pro Football Focus has a great article on "Why You're Way Too High On Jeremy Langford", and I would avoid this backfield altogether and just hope it sorts itself out sometime during the regular season.
Cincinnati Bengals (CIN)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Giovani Bernard
2. Rex Burkhead
3. Tra Carson
4. Bronson Hill
5. Jeremy Hill
6. Cedric Peerman
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Jeremy Hill
2. Giovani Bernard
3. Rex Burkhead
4. Cedric Peerman
Though Hill has been the traditional No. 1 RB for the Bengals over the last couple years, Bernard has been much more consistent as a pass-catching dual-threat type of player.
This is one of a very limited number of situations where two running backs are probably worth drafting relatively high: both Hill and Bernard had shining moments over the last couple seasons, and both are young and in their prime.
As a consideration, Burkhead could potentially make the shift to WR this year, so keep that in mind if either Hill or Bernard goes down.
Cleveland Browns (CLE)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Isaiah Crowell
2. Duke Johnson, Jr.
3. Raheem Mostert
4. Terrell Watson
5. Glenn Winston
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Isaiah Crowell
2. Duke Johnson, Jr.
3. ?
This is the first year in a long while that I think the Browns might have a sliver of a percent of a chance to maybe not do terribly.
Partially, this is because they have a QB who was truly good at one point in his career and a head coach who knows how to run a two-RB system.
Hue Jackson (the head coach) has spoken highly of Crowell, making it known that he is excited to use him often.
Johnson will also likely be used, based on Jackson's past usage of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard with the Bengals, though I'm not sure this is a team I'd be willing to draft from; at least, not above the mid-to-late rounds.
The Browns' third running back spot is up for grabs.
Dallas Cowboys (DAL)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Ezekiel Elliott
2. Darius Jackson
3. Darren McFadden (NFI)
4. Alfred Morris
5. Rod Smith
6. Lance Dunbar (PUP)
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Ezekiel Elliot
2. Alfred Morris
3. Darren McFadden (NFI)
4. Lance Dunbar (PUP)
Who knows?
Look, the Cowboys spent a 1st-rounder on Elliott, and are going to use him often as long as he can live up to his own hype.
But they also have Morris (the starter for the Redskins for the last few years), McFadden (their own starter from last year who did quite well but is recovering from a broken elbow), and multiple veterans with game experience on their roster.
Draft Elliott first if you want to, but this may turn into a RBBC (running back by committee) situation that no one really wants to touch in fantasy: I'm not spending an early 1st-rounder on him.
Denver Broncos (DEN)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. C.J. Anderson
2. Kapri Bibbs
3. Devontae Booker
4. Ronnie Hillman
5. Juwan Thompson
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. C.J. Anderson
2. Ronnie Hillman
3. Devontae Booker
The Broncos have some of the tougher decisions to make concerning this position.
Anderson is their de facto #1 RB, despite Hillman leading the team in yardage last year.
Booker was this year's 4th-round pick, and is competing with Thompson and Bibbs, though it appears all are neck-and-neck.
This may be another RBBC, so be wary about using high-round picks on these guys.
Detroit Lions (DET)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Ameer Abdullah
2. Theo Riddick
3. Stevan Ridley
4. Dwayne Washington
5. George Winn
6. Zach Zenner
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Ameer Abdullah
2. Theo Riddick
3. Stevan Ridley
4. Zach Zenner
Abdullah should be the clear lead back in this situation, with Riddick coming in as a passing-down option and Ridley giving Abdullah some time off here and there.
Ridley has a long injury history, so Zenner could step in there if necessary.
Draft Abdullah in the early-to-mid rounds, and Riddick in the late rounds: they're both getting better, and have (hopefully) nowhere to go but up.
Green Bay Packers (GB)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Brandon Burks
2. John Crockett
3. Eddie Lacy
4. Brandon Ross
5. James Starks
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Eddie Lacy
2. James Starks
3. John Crockett
Best case situation: Lacy rocks another 1,100+ yard season while Starks backs him up with a healthy amount of receptions and occassional breather carries.
Worst case situation: Lacy gains back all the weight he lost this off-season and gets injured in week 6, causing Starks to be the lead ball carrier at age 30 and forcing Crockett into semi-starting duties.
Lacy is worth drafting high, but be warned: the weight issue is truly a factor for him, and Starks is one of the more necessary backups to own.
Houston Texans (HOU)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Alfred Blue
2. Tyler Ervin
3. Jonathan Grimes
4. Kenny Hilliard
5. Akeem Hunt
6. Lamar Miller
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Lamar Miller
2. Jonathan Grimes
3. Alfred Blue
4. Tyler Ervin
Miller, as is widely known, was heavily under-utilized (and generally poorly used) in Miami, so this is a change for the better for him.
He is probably the most-hyped RB this off-season, and with good reason: I have him down for a very high pick.
Grimes and Blue have both been Texans' backups before, but Ervin was their 4th-round pick this year and is quite the runner (4.3 fast).
The only one worth a draft pick is Miller, unless you're really into fantasy handcuffs.
Indianapolis Colts (IND)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Josh Ferguson
2. Frank Gore
3. Jordan Todman
4. Abou Toure
5. Robert Turbin
6. Trey Williams
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Frank Gore
2. Robert Turbin
3. Jordan Todman
4. Josh Ferguson
Gore was not good last year in real life, and he was just above mediocre in fantasy.
With Andrew Luck returning, his value should go up, but he's still not worth above a 4th-round draft pick at maximum.
None of his potential handcuffs are worth anything, especially since Turbin (the #2 'back) could potentially be facing a suspension this year due to marijuana possession.
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Joe Banyard
2. Corey Grant
3. Jonas Gray
4. Chris Ivory
5. T.J. Yeldon
6. Denard Robinson
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Chris Ivory
2. T.J. Yeldon
3. Jonas Gray
Ivory is one of my favorite running backs, and so I probably have him higher than others will, though many are now recognizing that this may be a fantastic year for the Jaguars' offense: I'd consider him in the 3rd or 4th round as well.
Yeldon is a good backup, and may be worth a late-round draft pick.
No one else is worth drafting at this point.
Kansas City Chiefs (KC)
Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Jamaal Charles
2. Knile Davis
3. Darrin Reaves
4. Anthony Sherman
5. Spencer Ware
6. Charcandrick West
Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Jamaal Charles
2. Knile Davis
3. Spencer Ware
4. Charcandrick West
Last year, Charles, West, and Ware all posted a 100-yard rushing game.
That being said, Davis is the current handcuff for Charles, but Ware and West could be used throughout the season.
Charles is currently recovering from a surgically repaired knee, and if he isn't healthy by the regular season, Davis is worth a mid-round flier.
On the other hand, if Charles is fine, get him early with no regrets: just know that handcuffing him with Davis is a must.
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