Friday, August 5, 2016

The Season is Approaching: Running Backs - Part 2

This is "Part 2" of a two-part series on drafting running backs for the 2016 fantasy football season: you can find and read "Part 1" here.

Los Angeles Rams (LA)
-Previously St. Louis Rams (STL)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Malcolm Brown

2. Benny Cunningham
3. Aaron Green
4. Todd Gurley
5. Terrence Magee
6. Tre Mason
7. Chase Reynolds

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Todd Gurley
2. Benny Cunningham
3. ?

The Rams now have a 1st-round QB and RB as their presumed starters, and both should benefit from this.
Jared Goff may end up having been a reach with the Rams' #1 overall pick, but Gurley can only make his life easier.
Gurley is a good draft pick for fantasy football players anywhere, and likely in the top three rounds.

The backup situation is unclear at this point, as Tre Mason, the originally presumed backup, is dealing with off-field issues currently.

Miami Dolphins (MIA)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Jay Ajayi

2. Kenyan Drake
3. Arian Foster
4. Isaiah Pead
5. Daniel Thomas
6. Damien Williams

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Arian Foster
2. Jay Ajayi
3. Kenyan Drake

4. Damien Williams

Losing Lamar Miller is quite a blow, but the 'Phins were fortunate to pick up Foster, and considering all the positive reviews surrounding his current practices with the team, they may have even found a temporary upgrade (if they use him properly, which is always a big "IF" with the Dolphins).
Ajayi is talented, but dealing with injuries, and may have injury issues throughout his career.
Foster and Ajayi are the only running backs worth drafting from this team: the others are replacement-level or specialty 'backs.

Minnesota Vikings (MIN)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Matt Asiata

2. C.J. Ham
3. Jerick McKinnon
4. Kevin Monangai
5. Adrian Peterson
6. Jhurell Pressley

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jerick McKinnon
3. Matt Asiata

Adrian Peterson has long been known as one of the best running backs in the game during the last decade.
Last year was no exception: he played in all 16 games and ran for nearly 1,500 yards while adding over 200 receiving yards and scoring 11 touchdowns.
He should continue being a top draft pick, though apparently both he and McKinnon have been bit by the injury bug during this training camp.
McKinnon will be the main backup if he's healthy and might be worth a very late-round flier.
Asiata and others may function as TD-vultures on occasion, but they aren't worth a draft pick.


New England Patriots (NE)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. LeGarrette Blount

2. Brandon Bolden
3. Donald Brown
4. D.J. Foster
5. Tyler Gaffney
6. Joey Iosefa
7. Dion Lewis
8. James White

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. LeGarrette Blount
2. Dion Lewis
3. James White
4. D.J. Foster

New England running backs are notorious for being unpredictable, mostly due to coaching choices.
Because the Pats gameplan changes drastically from game to game based on the opposing team, there are weeks where one RB will be run 30 times for well over 100 yards, and then will drop to less than 10 carries the next week.
Blount has been the closest to consistent for NE, but is coming off a major injury and isn't even a lock to make the roster.
No Patriots RB is worth a draft pick outside of the latest rounds at this point.


New Orleans Saints (NO)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Travaris Cadet

2. Tim Hightower
3. Sione Houma
4. Mark Ingram
5. Daniel Lasco
6. C.J. Spiller
7. Marcus Murphy

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Mark Ingram
2. C.J. Spiller
3. Tim Hightower
4. Travaris Cadet

This is a tough one for injury-related reasons: Mark Ingram is one of my favorite runners in the game right now, but he has struggled to stay healthy, including dealing with a season-ending shoulder injury in week 13 of last season.
He should regain lead-back duties with Spiller functioning as the relief back.
Both Hightower and Cadet earned themselves occasional looks with their performance during the last four weeks of last season, so expect them to get some carries as well.
Ingram is still worth drafting somewhere in the upper rounds, especially if the Saints offense gets back to being the offensive machine it once was.

New York Giants (NYG)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Marshaun Coprich

2. Orleans Darkwa
3. Rashad Jennings
4. Paul Perkins
5. Bobby Rainey
6. Shane Vereen
7. Andre Williams

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Shane Vereen
2. Rashad Jennings
3. Andre Williams
4. Paul Perkins

The Giants' RB coach is currently talking up Jennings, and he certainly was hot during the last four weeks of last season, but there was a four-headed committee during last season that doesn't seem to have truly disappeared.
This offense is one of my least favorite for consistent running backs, but if you want to take a chance, feel free to draft Jennings in the mid-rounds and/or Vereen in the late rounds.
No other RB on this roster is good enough to draft, or even worth picking up later off the waiver wire.


New York Jets (NYJ)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Matt Forte

2. Romar Morris
3. Bernard Pierce
4. Bilal Powell
5. Matthew Tucker
6. Dominique Williams

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Matt Forte
2. Bilal Powell
3. Bernard Pierce

Chris Ivory may be gone, but replacing him with Matt Forte isn't bad at all.
Forte is one of the most respected running backs in the game, and also among the most versatile: he has caught more balls than most wide-outs in the game today.
Last year, Ivory and Powell formed a one-two punch with Powell getting about a sixth of the carries and catching balls occasionally as well, and Bowles has gone on record as saying that this year's plan is the same.
Forte should be worth a high pick once his hamstring is fully healed, and Powell may be worth a later flier as well.


Oakland Raiders (OAK)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. George Atkinson III

2. Taiwan Jones
3. Latavius Murray
4. Jalen Richard
5. DeAndre Washington

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Latavius Murray
2. Taiwan Jones
3. George Atkinson III

Murray is the clear-cut leader in this group, and the Raiders hardly even gave him a rest last season.
He didn't have the best season of all time, but it was still pretty darn good (over 1,000 yards rushing and over 200 yards receiving), so feel confident that he will be toting the rock often again this next season.
The No. 2 and No. 3 'back positions are up in the air, with anyone able to win them, so if Murray goes down due to injury, there may be a couple weeks of experimenting before a true replacement is selected.

Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Kenjon Barner

2. Byron Marshall
3. Ryan Mathews
4. Cedric O'Neal
5. Wendell Smallwood
6. Darren Sproles

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Ryan Mathews
2. Darren Sproles
3. Kenjon Barner

Mathews is the standard multi-down RB here, but he has proved to be injury-prone and (surprise!) has been out since the start of camp with an injury.
Sproles is a talented and versatile player, but he is 33 years old, and won't function well as an every-down 'back.
Barner has been getting the lead reps in camp, but once Mathews is healthy, he should be the only running back worthy drafting from this team anywhere above the late flier rounds.

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Le'Veon Bell

2. Brandon Brown-Dukes
3. Christian Powell
4. Daryl Richardson
5. Cameron Stingily
6. Fitzgerald Toussaint
7. DeAngelo Williams

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Le'Veon Bell
2. DeAngelo Williams
3. Fitzgerald Toussaint
4. ?

The best fantasy football RB is Le'Veon Bell, or he would be, if not for two factors: (1) he is recovering from a nasty ACL injury, and (2) he is facing what is likely a four-game suspension to start this season.
Fortunately, he has one of the best backups in the league in DeAngelo Williams, so Bell should maintain some upper-mid round value, and Williams is worth a pick as well.
If both are injured, Steelers running backs are always a good bet for fantasy points, so feel free to pick any full-time starter replacement off the waiver wire during the season.

San Diego Chargers (SD)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Kenneth Farrow

2. Melvin Gordon
3. Branden Oliver
4. Dreamius Smith
5. Danny Woodhead

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Melvin Gordon
2. Danny Woodhead
3. Branden Oliver

Gordon was terrible last season as the lead RB.
Woodhead was only the pass-catching and relief running back, but he was much more efficient, and is actually worth drafting over Gordon in my opinion.
Neither are more than 6th round picks in my book: if the Chargers have a better offense this year, it'll be because of Philip Rivers and their wideouts.


San Francisco 49ers (SF)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Mike Davis

2. Shaun Draughn
3. Kendall Gaskins
4. DuJuan Harris
5. Carlos Hyde
6. Kelvin Taylor

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Carlos Hyde
2. Shaun Draughn
3. DuJuan Harris

Here's a conundrum: Hyde is one of the most talented running backs in the league based on pure playing style and physical attributes, but he may now have the "injury-prone" label (mostly due to a stress fracture in his foot he suffered week 7 last year: it ended his season) and is playing what was widely regarded as the "worst offense in football" last season.
With Chip Kelly installing a familiar system that Hyde is familiarized with from his college days, there's a chance for a breakout season: many FF draft pundits are predicting him to explode for 1,500 yards.
Nonetheless, I have no faith in this organization's leadership, in Kelly's coaching, or in the 49ers' O-line.
Hyde is worth a draft pick, but not in the first couple rounds.
No other RB here is worth a draft pick.


Seattle Seahawks (SEA)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Zac Brooks

2. Alex Collins
3. Tre Madden
4. Cameron Marshall
5. Christine Michael
6. C.J. Prosise
7. Thomas Rawls

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Thomas Rawls
2. Christine Michael
3. C.J. Prosise
4. Alex Collins

Thomas Rawls may be a household name by the end of this season: he functioned as Marshawn Lynch's backup last season, and nearly out-performed Lynch in his 7 starts.
Unfortunately, he went down with a fractured ankle in week 14, and has yet to get through a training camp practice.
As a side note, Rawls isn't the only one dealing with training camp injuries: Prosise and Brooks have dealt with hamstring issues, and Madden is nursing a shoulder injury.
If Rawls isn't able to get onto the field by week 1, Michael will likely be the lead back with Collins as backup and Prosise functioning as the passing-down 'back.
This situation should clear up during the preseason games, but Rawls is likely the only one worth a mid-to-high draft pick.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Peyton Barber

2. Russell Hansbrough
3. Mike James
4. Storm Jounson
5. Doug Martin
6. Charles Sims

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Doug Martin
2. Charles Sims
3. Mike James

During the 2013 and 2014 seasons, fans of the Bucs had questions about whether or not Doug Martin could regain his 2012 form.
Those were answered last year: he had nearly 1,700 combined rushing and receiving yards, and should only get better as his chemistry with QB Jameis Winston improves.
He is worth a high pick: don't worry about his backups unless he gets injured.


Tennessee Titans (TEN)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Antonio Andrews

2. David Cobb
3. David Fluellen
4. Derrick Henry
5. Dexter McCluster
6. DeMarco Murray
7. Bishop Sankey

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. DeMarco Murray
2. Derrick Henry
3. Dexter McCluster
4. David Cobb

Originally expected to be a workhorse again this year, Murray may be in a 60/40 timeshare with 2nd-round pick Derrick Henry if Henry keeps performing well and improving at training camp and in preseason games.
There are many mid-round draft picks on this roster, but for fantasy purposes, Murray is probably no more than a 4th or 5th round pick at maximum, and Henry is probably better as a late-round flier if you feel the need to draft a Tennessee RB.

Washington Redskins (WAS)

Current Rostered Running Backs:
1. Mack Brown

2. Matt Jones
3. Robert Kelley
4. Keith Marshall
5. Chris Thompson
6. Kelsey Young

Likely to Make the Cut:
1. Matt Jones
2. Chris Thompson
3. ?

Jones is the presumed RB1 on this team with Thompson functioning as the 3rd-down back when necessary, though Jones has also been sitting out at camp a couple days, so his backup has gotten plenty of time with the 1st-stringers.
As long as Jones is healthy, this is a situation to take advantage of in fantasy drafts: since Kirk Cousins has plenty of weapons in the aerial game, there is less pressure on the 'Skins running backs, which could lead to good things this season.

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