Friday, September 30, 2016

Early-Season Fantasy Football Injuries and Replacements

Sometimes, it's not your fault.
Sometimes, it's not the player's fault.
But your fantasy football schedule takes no prisoners, and the result can be a messy beginning to your league's year.

So today, we dedicate an article to the guys who ruined (are still ruining?) your early-season success, and what kind of replacements are going on around the league.

1. WR Eric Decker (New York Jets)
Injury: Partially torn rotator cuff
Timeline: Week-to-week
Current Situation: 3rd in targets and receptions, 1st in yards and touchdowns among Jets' WR corps
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Quincy Enunwa, Robby Anderson



This sucks for fantasy owners: head coach Todd Bowles calls the injury "week-to-week", which at least means surgery isn't needed, but that option hasn't been ruled out either.
No one knows whether he'll be back in Week 5 or if he's done for the season.

Quincy Enunwa should already be owned in most leagues (though ESPN is only recording him at ~37% ownership) due to the heavy usage of 3-wideout sets, but in case he isn't, pick him up fast.
The next man up would be Jalin Marshall, but he also has a significant injury: a torn shoulder labrum.

That leaves preseason stand-out Robby Anderson, a 6'3 undrafted rookie from Temple University weighing in at only 190 lbs.
Proceed with caution.

2. WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo Bills)
Injury: Foot (pain management post-surgery)
Timeline: 8+ weeks
Current Situation: 2nd in targets and receptions, 4th in yards among Bills' WR corpsS
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Greg Salas, Justin Hunter


The Bills aren't much of a passing team right now (with the exception of the occasional deep ball), and Watkins hadn't been on the field much yet, but you had to expect more out of a guy who was being drafted 27th overall in Yahoo leagues and 32nd overall in ESPN leagues.
At this point, though, being out 8 weeks is the majority of the season: he might be back in time for fantasy football playoffs, but even that's up in the air.

Given the fact that that there isn't really a strong #2 wideout on this team, nor someone who can really fill those shoes, let's look at the most targeted WR: Robert Woods, who is only owned in 2.3% of ESPN leagues.

If that doesn't float your boat, you could aim for the more explosive but less targeted Goodwin or Salas, or take a true gamble on Justin Hunter.
If you're in a PPR league, Woods might be worth a look, but this feels like a situation to stay away from entirely.

3. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Injury: Hamstring strain
Timeline: Week 5 or Week 7 return
Current Situation: 2nd in rushing attempts and yards, 2nd in targets and receptions among Bucs' RBs
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Charles Sims, Jacquizz Rodgers


Martin is a pretty consistent fantasy producer when healthy, but Sims has been given a shot to take RB1 duties because of this injury.
Sims has shown strong talent in the past, and so this might get tricky once Martin is back.

Sims is already owned in 82% of Yahoo leagues and 85% of ESPN leagues, so it's not like this is one most people have left on the waiver wire.

Sims is a fantasy RB1 until Martin is healthy, and Rodgers has some previous NFL experience, so he could be a valuable backup if Sims goes down and/or if Martin ends up hurt for longer than projected.

4. RB Jeremy Langford (Chicago Bears)
Injury: Ankle
Timeline: 4-6 weeks
Current Situation: 1st in rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns, and targets among Bears' RBs
Potential Fantasy Replacements: Jordan Howard, Ka'Deem Carey


Langford was being praised in certain realms during the offseason, and was praised by the coach for being better prepared and looking good, but was still struggling to get yards after contact this year when he went down with an ankle injury.

Howard immediately took over, and is currently considered an every-down back in Chicago's system.

Ka'Deem Carey may eventually play a role once he's healthy, but that's a couple weeks down the road, and since he's only owned in 1% of Yahoo and 5% of ESPN leagues, you don't have to rush to pick him up.

Also, Chicago's offense is not inspiring in the least, so don't lose sleep over missing out on these options.
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Friday, September 23, 2016

Early-Season Top-5 Positional Rankings

Just as everyone predicted, the 2016 fantasy football season is not going according to plan.
At all.

As it concerns injuries, there have been more significant ones in a shorter period of time than most of us are used to, and more than anybody could feasibly prepare for, especially at the running back position.


In ESPN standard scoring leagues, the top five scoring RB's so far this season are:
1. DeAngelo Williams - 49.3 pts
2. Matt Forte - 45.4 pts
3. C.J. Anderson - 41.2 pts
4. Melvin Gordon - 36.7 pts
5. Isaiah Crowell - 35.6 pts


How many of those were 1st-round picks in your leagues?
Likely, none of them: we all know that the first two weeks don't win championships.

Each RB also has the potential to fall out of the top 5 in a couple weeks, considering that Williams will be replaced by Bell as the Steeler's lead back in week 4, Forte is 31 and could slow down quickly over the course of the season, Gordon has only had two good weeks in his NFL career (hint: they were the last two weeks), and Crowell is the lead back for the Browns, who will perish in fiery flames soon.

The RB that may have the best chance to remain in the top 5 through the season is Anderson, though Forte and Gordon are making their cases as well.

And don't forget the flip-flopping of wide receivers!
Here's the top five WR's in ESPN standard scoring leagues so far:
1. Kelvin Benjamin - 38.9 pts
2. Stefon Diggs - 36.4 pts
3. Willie Snead - 35.6 pts
4. Brandin Cooks - 35.2 pts
5. Larry Fitzgerald - 34.2 pts


The interesting thing is that the earliest positional ADP of any of the top 5 WR's is the same as the RB's: C.J. Anderson was selected as the 12th overall RB, and Brandin Cooks was selected as the 12th overall WR.

QB's have remained somewhat around their original predictions, with one overall surprise:
1. Matt Ryan - 52.2 pts
2. Cam Newton - 51 pts
3. Drew Brees - 47.9 pts
4. Derek Carr - 47.3 pts
5. Andrew Luck - 45.6 pts

Carr was toted as a "sleeper" QB prior to the season, but Matt Ryan was not hyped in many circles.
In fact, many had given up on him making an impact beyond being a bye-week filler.

Without diving into the crapshoot of kickers and defenses, let's take a quick peek at the tight end position:
1. Greg Olsen - 26.5 pts
2. Vance McDonald - 20.9 pts
3. Martellus Bennett - 19.8 pts
4. Julius Thomas - 19.5 pts
5. Jack Doyle - 19.2 pts

Only one of those guys was in the original top-5 drafted TE's, so don't feel bad if you made a swing-and-a-miss decision.

If you're already wishing for a complete draft redo, don't worry: you're not alone!
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Week 2 Team Updates

As mentioned in earlier posts, I intend to be as much of an open book as possible when it comes to how my teams are doing this season so that readers know whether to take any advice from me at all.

At this point in the 10-team college-crowd Yahoo PPR league, here's how Week 1 went:


Yes, a loss.
Andrew Luck, Willie Snead, and David Johnson combined for enough points that I didn't stand much of a chance in this one.
Fortunately, there's always next week, and luck is a fickle thing.


Like I said, luck is a fickle thing.
Winning by .28 points = so much last-minute stress.

The other league is the 12-team workplace ESPN standard league, and here's how the first week went:


I love blowout games when I'm on the winning side.
Ware was a great bet, and no one is ever really "low" on Antonio Brown.
Plus, Forte has been (and continues to be) a pleasant surprise.


I am LOVING Forte's workload at this point in the season.

For now, there's the updates on the leagues: feel free to comment below with questions or concerns about personnel changes or anything else,
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Saturday, September 10, 2016

Inside The Mind

The age-old adage "Those who can't do, teach" is not only untrue in many cases, but it's also something you don't want to be true in most situations.

Example A: Generally, I hope that cooks are being taught how to prepare food items like fish and eggs correctly, or my Saturdays at the local bar and grill suddenly could become much less appealing.

Example B: Personally, I would also hope that surgeons are being taught by people who know what they're doing and can do it.

Imagine: "I think that's the right vein, Jim, but just in case, let me go check Google."

Etc.

And of course, you don't want fantasy football advice from some guy who can't achieve some level of success. Experience is the best teacher, so we don't expect the first season of someone's fantasy football career to be full of perfect predictions. Nonetheless, at some point it becomes ridiculous to keep taking draft advice from that neighbor who always "goes with his gut" and comes out 8th in 8-person leagues each year. So, with all that being said, I'm going to be as candid as possible with my drafts and how my season is going. There are two main leagues I'll be focusing on this year: a former college-crowd 10-team Yahoo PPR league, and a workplace 12-team ESPN standard league.

First up, the Yahoo league.


Draft Breakdown:

Once again, this is a 10-team PPR league, with our draft held on September 4th.

In this league, here are the extra factors I had to consider while drafting:
1. Each catch equals .5 points for all positions
2. Touchdowns are worth 6 points for all positions
3. Completions add .1 points for the QB
4. There are two active FLEX spots, one only open to WR/RB, and one including WR/RB/TE

I had the 7th overall pick in this snake draft, so here are the results of each round.
1st: DeAndre Hopkins - WR
2nd: Ezekiel Elliott - RB
3rd: LeSean McCoy - RB
4th: Mike Evans - WR
5th: Doug Baldwin - WR
6th: Travis Kelce - TE
7th: Philip Rivers - QB
8th: Allen Hurns - WR
9th: Derrick Henry - RB
10th: Tyler Boyd - WR
11th: Terrance West - RB
12th: Martellus Bennett - TE
13th: Terrelle Pryor - WR
14th: Tyrod Taylor - QB
15th: Cincinnati - DEF
16th: Justin Tucker - K

I can't say I was happy with all my positions afterwards, especially at QB, but the more I've considered this one, the more content I am. As far as draft strategy goes, this league pays out such high dividends to WR's that some RB's dropped farther than anyone thought they would. As such, I walked in considering a Zero-RB strategy and walked out with two top RB's in the first three rounds.

Flexibility is key, guys: if I had stuck to my Zero-RB mindset, imagine the buyer's remorse! Ezekiel Elliott at #14? LeSean McCoy at #27? I never could have predicted that. And I was fortunate enough to have Mike Evans drop all the way into the 4th round, giving me a solid #2 WR.

I might not be Marlon Brando, but I sure felt like Sky Masterson with Lady Luck on my side.

The next few rounds went somewhat as expected: I had contingencies, more contingencies, and contingencies for my contingencies, so not much was surprising at that point. I kept trying to grab WR's with high ceilings and progressively lower floors as the draft went on, and that seemed to be relatively successful. Hopkins has a high floor, Evans is slightly lower, Baldwin is slightly lower than that, etc. Rivers as my starting QB will be fine for the majority of the season, and Kelce as my top TE is fine as well: he's not Gronk or Reed, but he's not quite as injury-prone either.

The last few rounds felt like the crapshoot they are. My only goal was to walk out of them with the highest possible ceilings and not worry about if they crap out in the end. Boyd likely has a higher floor and ceiling than most late-round picks (considering Eifert's injury and the lack of other capable or veteran wideouts), so I had no hesitation there. West was looking like the starter for the Ravens' backfield until Forsett was re-signed and the dreaded "rotation" became imminent, so I opted to drop him and pick up Alfred Morris as a handcuff to Elliott: that feels like an even better decision since ESPN reported that Morris will have a role in the Cowboys offense as well.


Due to Gronk's high injury rate, Bennett feels more like a steal than anything: there are already concerns, and the Pats haven't even played their first game!


Pryor is my definition of a late-round flyer. RG3 could have a rebound year with Pryor as his main target until Gordon returns, and Pryor may keep a large amount of targets even afterwards if he proves more reliable. Taylor already had some nice moments last year, and feels like a more reliable gamble (yes, we all see the irony there) than most other backup QB options.

Here's the ESPN league.


 Draft Breakdown:

This is a 12-team standard scoring league, with our draft held on September 1st.

In this league, there weren't extra scoring or playing factors I needed to consider, so this was much simpler to prepare for.

I had the 3rd overall pick in this snake draft, so here are the results of each round.
1st: Antonio Brown - WR
2nd: Brandon Marshall - WR
3rd: Keenan Allen - WR
4th: Jeremy Maclin - WR
5th: Matt Forte - RB
6th: Melvin Gordon - RB
7th: Chris Ivory - RB
8th: Blake Bortles - QB
9th: Martellus Bennett - TE
10th: Tyler Boyd - WR
11th: Spencer Ware - RB
12th: Jared Cook - TE
13th: Matt Ryan - QB
14th: Justin Tucker - K
15th: Vikings - DEF

This draft definitely had more of a Zero-RB vibe to it, which I feel a little up-in-the-air about. I'm not happy with Forte as my #1 RB or with Gordon as my #2 RB, but mostly it's the QB situation that scares me a bit.

Nonetheless, there are some great moments here. I LOVE Antonio Brown, especially with how limited the Steelers' other weapons are right now. He is going to pile on the targets.


Marshall is functionally a #1 receiver for fantasy purposes and Allen is a high-value #2, so the WR position is just stacked on this team. If my FLEX position ends up being Allen each week, I'll be a happy man. Either Allen or Maclin could serve as trade bait down the road if I want to try to improve another position's situation.

I hit the RB's hard after that four-round fling with the WR position, and what I got are basically three low-to-mid end RB2's. Forte should be the lead back for the Jets (maybe on a snap-count, though), Gordon is the lead back for the Chargers, and Ivory is the goal-line back for the Jags. If Gordon and the Chargers' O-line have improved even a little over the summer, he could be a great value. Similarly, if the Jags offense has improved as much as people want to believe, Ivory could get a multitude of opportunities to be the ultimate TD machine.

Bortles has a ton of upside due to his weapons, but we'll see if his accuracy can improve. It was pretty horrendous last year. I talked about Bennett and Boyd in the Yahoo section above, and you can see I double-downed on them here as well. Ware could turn out being one of the steals of the draft if Charles continues to struggle to come back from injury.

Cook could potentially blow up as well as the Packer's first real pass-catching TE in a while, and it's worth a flier at that point in the draft. I'm not happy about Ryan as my backup QB, but I strongly believe in having an experienced one on my bench at all times, so we'll see where that goes over the course of the season.

Let me know what you think: feel free to comment and tell me your thoughts!
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