Mid-season has brought injuries, waiver-wire pickups and drops, and many trades in multiple leagues.
Today, we'll take a peek at ten QB's fantasy stats, projections, and advice for the upcoming weeks.
The goal is to provide (1) an edge for those seeking mid-season blockbuster trades, and (2) sit-start advice, especially for smaller leagues.
I've designed graphs for each QB tracking their fantasy points for the season.
Since data can be interpreted in so many ways, we will be removing all outside factors (interceptions, opposing defenses, injuries, etc.) for the initial observations, and then diving deeper
Let's dive into the midst of these numbers and charts to see if we can glean some advice.
1. Matt Ryan
Total Points: 119 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 23.8
Strength of Schedule: 1st (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Seahawks
Advice: Playing any QB versus the Hawks is a bet in itself. Be prepared for well-below-average production. If he does well against their defense this week, there is nothing he can't do, and should then be considered the #1 fantasy QB for the rest of the season.
2. Ben Roethlisberger
Total Points: 110 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 22
Strength of Schedule: 23rd (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Dolphins
Advice: The Dolphins don't scare anyone currently, and Big Ben has a higher ceiling than almost any other QB. He is already in the mix for the top fantasy QB of the season. Expect good things.
3. Derek Carr
Total Points: 100 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 20
Strength of Schedule: 15th
Upcoming Opponent: Chiefs
Advice: Kansas City's defense had its stats padded by all the interceptions against Ryan "Sixpatrick", but then crashed the week after in a loss to the Steelers. Carr has been consistent, and is looking like an easy top-5 fantasy QB every week.
4. Andrew Luck
Total Points: 95 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 19
Strength of Schedule: 22nd
Upcoming Opponent: Texans
Advice: Outside of the crazy crash that Luck experienced from week 1 to week 2, he has improved fantasy-wise each game. The Texans D/ST has basically gone the other way. No Watt = no worries for this week's play at QB.
T-5. Philip Rivers
Total Points: 91 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 18.2
Strength of Schedule: 13th
Upcoming Opponent: Broncos
Advice: No QB has had a ton of success against Denver's defense, so it was no surprise that Rivers only put up 11 points against them in the Thursday Night Football showing this week. That should remain his floor for the rest of the season.
T-5. Matthew Stafford
Total Points: 91 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 18.2
Strength of Schedule: 27th (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Rams
Advice: The Rams have an obvious limit on how many points they can put up, especially against prepared defenses. Their main strength is their defense, and without Riddick as a passing-down back in this game, be prepared for a below-average return from Stafford in terms of fantasy points.
7. Dak Prescott
Total Points: 83 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 16.6
Strength of Schedule: 27th (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Packers
Advice: This is my one of my favorite graphs to look at. Maybe the rookie won't win you your fantasy league by himself, but he can't really be blamed for any losses. The Packer's run defense is legit, so they may make Dak do more in this game instead of pounding the rock with Elliott. Until proven otherwise, Prescott is a safe bet.
8. Drew Brees
Total Points: 81 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 20.25
Strength of Schedule: 4th
Upcoming Opponent: Panthers
Advice: Information, data, and statistics all have limits on their face-value effectiveness, and this shows it pretty clearly. Brees per-game averages would make him the #2 fantasy QB, but because of the bye week, he drops a ways. Keep playing him, especially against the Panthers' weak secondary.
9. Andy Dalton
Total Points: 80 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 16
Strength of Schedule: 27th (Tie)
Upcoming Opponent: Patriots
Advice: Andy Dalton is exactly what you'd expect from Andy Dalton: need I say more? Though New England's defense is formidable, they have some significant red-zone issues. Play Dalton if you need to.
10. Aaron Rodgers
Total Points: 79 (as of 10/12/2016)
Average PPG: 19.75
Strength of Schedule: 32nd
Upcoming Opponent: Cowboys
Advice: Once again, bye weeks can mess up how we look at data. Based on per-game averages alone, Rodgers would be the #5 overall QB through the first 5 weeks, which is quite a jump from this position. The Cowboys are known for their "bend, but don't break" mentality on defense, but that shouldn't play a factor when putting Rodgers in your lineup: if you have him, he's playing.
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