Mid-season In-Depth Comparison: Wide Receivers

There are so many ways to measure anything you want to in the NFL: think about the multiple types of ratings for quarterbacks, the in-depth stats about wide receivers (like yards of separation per route run), and yards after contact where running backs are concerned.

But even if you're a hardcore stat-diver, your fantasy football team only cares about results: yards, touchdowns, receptions, and a few other categories.
That's not to say some of those "Next-Gen" stats aren't useful or predictive: we simply mean that the box score is what gets your team points.

Taking that into consideration, this article will dive into the both sides (the results AND the revealing stats) as it concerns the statistical leaders in multiple categories.

Be ready for some surprises: tracking football trends is how many players make smart roster decisions.

Wide Receivers

Targets (per game)

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Mike Evans (12.1)
2. Antonio Brown (10.9)
3. Larry Fitzgerald (10.6)
4. Allen Robinson (10.2)
5. A.J. Green (10.0)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Stefon Diggs (12.3)
2. Larry Fitzgerald (12.0)
3. Mike Evans (11.5)
4. Julian Edelman (11.3)
T-5. Jordy Nelson (11.3)
T-5. Jordan Matthews (11.3)
T-5. Antonio Brown (11.3)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who are targeted the most per game this season have a differential of 2.1, meaning that first-ranked Mike Evans is targeted two more times per game than fifth-ranked A.J. Green on average.
2. The reason why Edelman is ranked above Nelson, Matthews, and Brown even though they all have approximately 11.3 targets per game is because his targets per game was rounded down, while theirs were rounded up. He has received one more target over the last four games than the three other receivers just mentioned.

3. Allen Robinson is ranked 4th in targets per game for the season, and yet is ranked 30th for receptions per game on the season. This either means he is dropping balls like crazy, or QB Blake Bortles is wildly inaccurate. Bortles' stats in last week's article lend themselves towards the idea that he has regressed, not that Robinson has regressed as a WR.

Receptions (per game)

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Antonio Brown (7.7)
2. Stefon Diggs (7.4)
3. Larry Fitzgerald (7.4)
4. A.J. Green (6.6)
5. Mike Evans (6.5)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Stefon Diggs (10.0)
2. Antonio Brown (9.7)
3. Larry Fitzgerald (9.3)
4. Amari Cooper (9.0)
T-5. Julio Jones (7.0)
T-5. Golden Tate (7.0)
T-5. Jordan Matthews (7.0)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who catch the most passes per game this season only have a differential of 1.2, meaning that first-ranked Antonio Brown only catches one more ball per game than fifth-ranked Mike Evans on average.
2. Stefon Diggs has been catching the most balls in the league for the last four weeks, more than Brown, Fitzgerald, and Cooper. This is even more impressive when we consider that the Vikings rank 26th in the league in passing attempts, and only throw the ball an average of 34.4 times per game.
3. Jones, Tate, and Matthews are all tied for the 5th-most receptions per game during the last four weeks at 7 catches per game. Depending on your fantasy playoff schedule, it might be worth attempting to trade for a few of the folks on the above lists.

Receiving Yards (per game)

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Julio Jones (110.5)
2. A.J. Green (96.4)
3. Mike Evans (91.6)
4. Antonio Brown (90.7)
5. Amari Cooper (90.0)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Antonio Brown (101.5)
2. Amari Cooper (95.3)
3. Mike Evans (92.8)
4. Julio Jones (91.7)
5. Larry Fitzgerald (89.7)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who have the most receiving yards per game this season have a relatively large differential of 20.5, meaning that first-ranked Julio Jones gains approximately 20 more yards per game than fifth-ranked Amari Cooper on average.
2. Amari Cooper ranks on both these lists, and yet is only 13th in targets per game on the season. This is an indicator of a couple potential game styles: either (1) the Raiders' downfield shots are more successful than many teams, or (2) Cooper is such an incredible talent that he is doing more with his targets than many wideouts in the league.
3. Julio Jones' game against the Panthers back in the beginning of October (where he put up 300 yards on them) was bookended by his least-involved games of the year, and yet he still leads all other receivers in the league by at least 14 yards per game on the season. He is the definition of a generational talent.

Yards Per Catch

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Sammie Coates (21.2)
2. Julio Jones (18.1)
3. Kenny Stills (17.7)
4. Marvin Jones (17.4)
5. Tyrell Williams (16.7)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Victor Cruz (47.0)
2. Bryce Treggs (34.5)
3. Freddie Martino (26.0)
4. Chris Hogan (22.8)
5. Andre Roberts (22.5)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who have the most yards per catch per game this season have a differential of 4.5, meaning that first-ranked Sammie Coates gains approximately four-and-a-half more yards per catch than fifth-ranked Tyrell Williams on average.
2. A quick qualifier: many of these names do not lead the league in receiving. Instead, all stats are obtained from www.teamrankings.com, and they qualify the Season YPC as "on pace for at least 30 receptions", and the 4 Weeks YPC as "on pace for at least 3 receptions".
3. Julio Jones is the only receiver from previous lists to make this list, which reinforces the idea of him being a generational talent.
4. Keep an eye on Kenny Stills: he has had three games this season with at least 8 targets, and four games this season with a touchdown. If Tannehill keeps up his hot streak (100.7 QBR over the last five games vs. 80.9 over the first five), and especially if another WR goes down on their team, Stills could be in for heavier usage towards the end of the season.
5. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Marvin Jones, who averaged 9 targets per game for the first 4 games of the season, but has averaged 5.9 targets per game over the last 7 games. He has had as many as 11 targets in a game (vs. Vikings, Titans) or as few as 2 targets (vs. Jaguars).

Catch Rate

NFL 2016 Season (through 11/21/2016)

1. Ty Montgomery (82.4%)
2. Cordarrelle Patterson (79.6%)
3. Cole Beasley (79.5%)
4. Tyreek Hill (78.3%)
5. Doug Baldwin (77.1%)

Last 4 Weeks Only

T-1. Charone Peake (100%)
T-1. Jordan Taylor (100%)
3. Ty Montgomery (88.9%)
4. Brandon Coleman (85.7%)
5. Mohamed Sanu (84.2%)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five WR's who have the highest catch rate this season have a differential of 5.3%, meaning that first-ranked Ty Montgomery catches a little more than five percent of his catches more than fifth-ranked Doug Baldwin on average.
2. Though Ty Montgomery has an extremely high catch rate and high usage in the last few games for the Packers, he also lost two fumbles in both the Cowboys game in mid-October and the Redskins game in late November.
3. Cole Beasley has been a high-usage player this season, but with Dez Bryant returning to form, he will likely remain useful only in PPR leagues.
4. Doug Baldwin is probably the biggest-name receiver to make it onto this list, once again confirming how efficient he is, and how the Seahawks should use him as the focal point of the offense alongside Jimmy Graham.