Friday, November 18, 2016

Mid-season In-Depth Comparison: Quarterbacks

There are so many ways to measure anything you want to in the NFL: think about the multiple types of ratings for quarterbacks, the in-depth stats about wide receivers (like yards of separation per route run), and yards after contact where running backs are concerned.

But even if you're a hardcore stat-diver, your fantasy football team only cares about results: yards, touchdowns, receptions, and a few other categories.
That's not to say some of those "Next-Gen" stats aren't useful or predictive: we simply mean that the box score is what gets your team points.

Taking that into consideration, this article will dive into the both sides (the results AND the revealing stats) as it concerns the statistical leaders in multiple categories.

Be ready for some surprises: it may be time to make a last-minute roster adjustment.


Quarterbacks

Passing Attempts (per game)

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 35.4

1. Blake Bortles (42.2)
2. Joe Flacco (42.1)
3. Drew Brees (42.0)
4. Carson Palmer (41.4)
5. Aaron Rodgers (41.0)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Carson Palmer (48.0)
2. Blake Bortles (46.8)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (45.5)
4. Aaron Rodgers (44.0)
5. Case Keenum (43.0)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five QB's who attempt the most passes per game this season only have a differential of 1.2, meaning that first-ranked Bortles only throws the ball approximately once a game more than fifth-ranked Rodgers.
2. The Jags have thrown the ball constantly, mostly due to the huge holes that Bortles has put them in. When Bortles throws, interceptions happen, and then they have to throw the ball more to have a chance of affecting the point deficit. It's a terrible cycle.
3. Flacco threw a ton for the first part of the season (and still does), but has thrown the ball about 4 times less per game than his season's average for the last few weeks, probably due to Baltimore's OC change when Marc Trestman was fired in October.
4. Palmer, on the other hand, has thrown the ball much more during the last few weeks: nearing 50 attempts per game! The past three games he has thrown the ball 49 times, 46 times, and 49 times, respectively.

Completions (per game)

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 22.8

1. Drew Brees (29.8)
T-2. Joe Flacco (26.3)
T-2. Kirk Cousins (26.3)
4. Derek Carr (26)
5. Aaron Rodgers (25.9)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Carson Palmer (31.3)
T-2. Ben Roethlisberger (30.0)
T-2. Kirk Cousins (30.0)
4. Drew Brees (29.6)
5. Aaron Rodgers (28.3)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five QB's who complete the most passes have a differential of 3.9, meaning that first-ranked Brees completes (on average) almost four more passes a game than fifth-ranked Aaron Rodgers.
2. Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins are not listed among the five QB's who attempt the most passes (either through this season or through only the last 4 weeks), and yet made their way onto the top five QB's in completions per game. This generally means they are performing at a higher level than some of the quarterbacks who were on the "Passing Attempts" list but are not on this one.
3. Due to the huge increase in passing volume during the last four weeks, Palmer and Roethlisberger made it onto both the "Passing Attempts" and "Completions" lists.

Completion Percentage

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 64.1%

1. Tom Brady (72.9%)
2. Drew Brees (71.0%)
3. Sam Bradford (69.6%)
4. Matt Ryan (68.2%)
5. Matthew Stafford (67.3%)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Drew Brees (75.9%)
T-2. Tom Brady (70.3%)
T-2. Kirk Cousins (70.3%)
4. Cody Kessler (69.6%)
5. Sam Bradford (69.0%)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five QB's who own the highest completion percentage in the league have a relatively large differential of 5.6%, meaning that first-ranked Brady completes approximately five percent more of his passes than fifth-ranked Stafford. That makes the last four weeks for Brees even more impressive, because he is completing 5.6% more of his passes than both Brady and Cousins (tied for second in these rankings).
2. Kessler makes the list for the last four weeks, though his 7.0 seasonal YPA is ranked 20th in the league in yards-per-attempt. Bradford actually makes both of these lists, though his 7.1 seasonal YPA puts him 16th in the league.
3. For comparison's sake, Brady is ranked 1st in the league so far this season with 9.8 YPA, and Brees is currently ranked 9th in the league with 7.8 YPA.

Passing Yards (per game)

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 261.9

1. Drew Brees (327.6)
2. Tom Brady (327.0)
3. Matt Ryan (324.7)
4. Carson Palmer (305.5)
5. Kirk Cousins (301.9)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Carson Palmer (360.3)
2. Kirk Cousins (340.33)
3. Ben Roethlisberger (336.0)
4. Philip Rivers (309.8)
5. Drew Brees (308.6)

Hot Take(s)

1. The five QB's who own the highest average passing yards per game are separated by a differential of 25.7, meaning that first-ranked Brees gains almost 26 more yards through the air each game than fifth-ranked Cousins.
2. Palmer is ranked first in this category for the last four weeks, which makes sense due to the Cardinals' significantly increased amount of passing attempts.
3. Philip Rivers finally makes it onto a list, mostly due to the game against the Falcons four weeks ago in which he threw for 371 yards.
4. Tom Brady, oddly enough, is ranked second in the league in this category, but has only been throwing for approximately 284 yards per game during the last four weeks, down 43 yards per game from his seasonal average.

Total Touchdowns

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 14.5

1. Drew Brees (27)
2. Aaron Rodgers (25)
3. Matt Ryan (24)
4. Marcus Mariota (23)
5. Ben Roethlisberger (21)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Drew Brees (13)
2. Marcus Mariota (12)
T-3. Jameis Winston (10)
T-3. Aaron Rodgers (10)
5. Matt Ryan (9)

Hot Take(s)

1. Brees is apparently the QB to own in fantasy, because he appears on basically every list in this article. Combined, this makes him beyond valuable on a week-to-week playing basis.
2. Marcus Mariota makes his first appearance on these lists. During the Titans' first four games, Mariota only averaged one TD per game. Over the last six games, he has averaged more than three touchdowns per game. Also, he has increased his passing yardage during the last six games by almost 30 yards a game. Trending upwards, he has the potential to make the Titans a darkhorse playoff contender.

Passer Rating

NFL Average (through 11/18/2016) ~ 91.8

1. Tom Brady (125.5)
2. Matt Ryan (115.1)
3. Drew Brees (106.4)
4. Dak Prescott (106.2)
5. Matthew Stafford (101.6)

Last 4 Weeks Only

1. Tom Brady (117.1)
2. Marcus Mariota (116.3)
3. Matt Ryan (110.9)
4. Dak Prescott (110.6)
5. Drew Brees (110.3)

Hot Take(s)

1. Tom Brady tops both these lists, though his passer rating in the last four weeks is 8 points lower than his season's average.
2. Prescott finally makes a list, and the fact that he is not ranked in the top five QB's for any of the other categories means that he isn't throwing the ball a ton, but he does have an above-average completion percentage and a top-five YPA. This, combined with the fact that he has only thrown two interceptions all season, means that he is being extremely efficient with the ball. Finally, he actually has the third-highest amount of touchdowns per game during the last four weeks, meaning that his efficiency has carried over into scoring as well.


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