They like plans, and having some degree of follow-through.
Conversely, people love risk.
Not actual risk, mind you, but situations that APPEAR to be risky, even though the outcome is pre-determined in their favor.
When things are actually unpredictable, such as in fantasy football, we get responses like this:
Yo I dislike Fantasy football man it's way too unpredictable everyone I finally quit on balling on the pine— Broke Boiardee (@NutE_One7) October 30, 2016
I don't know what's more unpredictable, my life or fantasy football— Sterling (@Sterling_Thomas) October 30, 2016
Fantasy football this season has been so unpredictable in all the worst ways— Michael Gentile (@michaelpgentile) October 30, 2016
Running Backs
(or, more accurately, "Limping Backs")
Adrian Peterson.— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 2, 2016
Arian Foster.
Jamaal Charles.
CJ Anderson.
Eddie Lacy.
Bad season for RB's.#FantasyFootball#NFL
Top 5 RB's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. David Johnson - 149 points
2. DeMarco Murray - 135 points
3. Melvin Gordon - 128 points
4. Ezekiel Elliott - 117 points
5. LeGarrette Blount - 112 points
Currently, only two RB's who held a 1st-round ADP in 12-team leagues are currently in the top 5 (Johnson and Elliott).
Murray's ADP was in the early 5th round, Gordon's ADP was in the mid-6th round, and Blount was being drafted in the late 9th round.
This is why some fantasy pundits hold to the "zero-RB" draft strategy: not that they refuse to draft running backs, but they would rather find value in the mid and late rounds.
Nonetheless, two of these players are returning solid value on their position, and many had more consistent scores than their early-round WR counterparts.
Wide Receivers
(who should form a band called "The Kings of Inconsistency")
#FantasyFootball fact of the day:— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 2, 2016
Midway through the #NFL season, 6 RB's have more points than the top fantasy WR (#ESPN Standard Scoring).
1. Julio Jones - 105 points
2. A.J. Green - 104 points
3. Mike Evans - 94 points
4. T.Y. Hilton - 92 points
5. Michael Crabtree - 91 points
Based on 12-team league ADP's, two of the above WR's were drafted in the 1st-round (Jones and Green), but many fantasy owners have been severely disappointed at their lack of consistency.
Julio Jones has scored 12 or more points on five separate occasions, but he was held to only 1 or 2 points in the other three games.
Similarly, A.J. Green has scored 12 or more points on four different occasions, but was held to 8 or less points for the other half of his schedule.
Looking at the ESPN Live Draft results, Evans was being picked (on average) in the early 3rd round, Hilton in the mid-4th round, and Crabtree was becoming a value steal in the 8th round.
Many other wide receivers have fallen significantly from the lofty expectations placed on them by fantasy owners: though Antonio Brown isn't doing terribly (currently 7th-ranked WR), OBJ (currently 12th-ranked WR) and DeAndre Hopkins (currently 31st-ranked WR) have both fallen well short of their 1st-round ADP's.
Quarterbacks
(preferably, all of our buy-in money back)
Positional #FantasyFootball comparison (#NFL week 8):Top QB: 175 ptsTop RB: 149 ptsTop WR: 105 ptsTop TE: 74 pts#FFF8
— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 9, 2016
Top 5 QB's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Matt Ryan - 175 points
2. Andrew Luck - 163 points
3. Drew Brees - 157 points
4. Derek Carr - 156 points
5. Matthew Stafford - 148 points
ADP reveals so much about the fantasy community's trust in players' production, and also how misplaced it is.
Though no quarterback had an ADP above the 16th overall pick (early 2nd-round), only two of these QB's were taken in the top 10 overall at their position.
Drew Brees was the 4th QB taken with an ADP in the 4th round, and Andrew Luck's was nearly identical.
Then we wait.
The next QB taken from this list was Stafford in the 9th round, with Carr only a couple spots behind.
And finally, "Matty Ice" was the 21st overall quarterback taken, and had an ADP in the 10th round.
The first three QB's taken on average?
Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.
Swing-and-a-miss.
Tight Ends
(the perpetual disappointments of the family)
The top #NFL #FantasyFootball TE (Greg Olsen) has about the same amount of points as:— Daniel McCafferty (@fffblogspot) November 3, 2016
1. 30th-ranked QB
2. 19th-ranked RB
3. 13th-ranked WR
Top 5 TE's this season (ESPN Standard Scoring):
1. Greg Olsen - 74 points
2. Rob Gronkowski - 64 points
3. Martellus Bennett - 60 points
4. Jordan Reed - 57 points
5. Delanie Walker - 56 points
The ADP for tight ends was much more predictive in its accuracy.
Four of the first five drafted TE's are on this list at the midseason checkpoint, which is a good sign for fantasy owners who invested semi-early for their TE.
The downside is that even a good TE (outside of the insanity of the Gronk machine) compares poorly to all other skill positions.
Olsen was drafted in the 4th round, Gronk was the earliest drafted TE with an ADP in the early 2nd round, Reed could be had in the late 3rd round, and Walker was being taken in the late 5th round.
The "surprise" man on this list is Bennett, who essentially was Gronkowski for the first few weeks of the season, and was a value pick in the 10th round.
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