Having reached the midpoint of the season, it seems as good a time as any to dig into some fantasy statistics.
Today, we'll dive into the top ten QB's fantasy stats, projections, and advice for the upcoming weeks.
The goal is to provide (1) an edge for those seeking mid-season blockbuster trades, and (2) sit-start advice, especially for smaller leagues.
I've designed graphs for each QB tracking their fantasy points for the season.
Since data can be interpreted in so many ways, we will be removing all outside factors (interceptions, opposing defenses, injuries, etc.) for the initial observations, and then diving deeper throughout the analysis.
I've added one adjusted stat for each QB called "TD-TO Ratio", which stands for "Total Touchdown to Total Turnovers Ratio".
Because not all touchdowns come through the air, and because not all turnovers are interceptions (e.x. fumbles), I feel this is a more accurate fantasy football score indicator.
Let's see what advice these numbers hold in store for us.
1. Matt Ryan
Total Points: 175 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 21.9
TD-TO Ratio: 19-5
Previous Opponent: Tampa Bay
Upcoming Opponent: Philadelphia
Advice: Due to Thursday Night Football, we've already seen Ryan destroy the Bucs, though that game was not put into our numbers so that every QB is measured against the same standard. Next up, the Eagles' defense is ranked 4th in PPG, 8th in YPG, 5th in Passing YPG, and 20th in Rushing YPG. We can assume at this point in the season that those stats paint an accurate picture as to how their defense is currently playing. Since their weakness is against the run, this may be more of a Freeman-Coleman game as opposed to a heavy passing game. Matt Ryan should be considered the #1 fantasy QB for the rest of the season.
2. Andrew Luck
Total Points: 163 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 20.4
TD-TO Ratio: 17-8
Previous Opponent: Kansas City
Upcoming Opponent: Green Bay
Advice: The Packers defense ranks 15th in PPG, 7th in YPG, 16th in Passing YPG, and 2nd in Rushing YPG. This reveals a generally middling defense when defending the pass, and since they have generally shut down opponents' rushing attack, that means Luck will likely be throwing the ball early and often. He's as good a play as anyone this week.
3. Drew Brees
Total Points: 157 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 22.4
TD-TO Ratio: 19-6
Previous Opponent: Seahawks
Upcoming Opponent: San Francisco
Advice: Because the Saints have already had their bye week, this placement is a bit skewed. Brees is actually leading all QB's in fantasy points per game, scoring more on average than Matt Ryan. The 49ers defense currently ranks 32nd in PPG, 30th in YPG, 7th in Passing YPG, and 32nd in Rushing YPG. Chip Kelly coaches a terrible team. Brees has a good chance to be the #1 scorer in fantasy football this week.
4. Derek Carr
Total Points: 156 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 19.5
TD-TO Ratio: 17-5
Previous Opponent: Tampa Bay
Upcoming Opponent: Denver
Advice: Denver's strong defense is currently ranked 5th in PPG, 3rd in YPG, 1st in Passing YPG, and 23rd in Rushing YPG. Because of the disparity between the passing and rushing YPG ranks, the Raiders may take to the group more often for this matchup. Nonetheless, based on their insanely strong passing attack, Carr may be one of the few QB's able to pull off a strong fantasy game versus the Broncos.
5. Matthew Stafford
Total Points: 148 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 18.5
TD-TO Ratio: 16-5
Previous Opponent: Houston
Upcoming Opponent: Minnesota
Advice: Though the Vikings are struggling mightily on offense, their defense is still extremely strong: they are currently ranked 1st in PPG, 2nd in YPG, 4th in Passing YPG, and 9th in Rushing YPG. They don't have a glaring weakness, though they weren't perfect last week when Jordan Howard gashed them for some big gains. This is a tough team to throw on, but Stafford is one of the top fantasy QB's in this league. You probably aren't sitting him.
6. Aaron Rodgers
Total Points: 146 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 20.9
TD-TO Ratio: 19-7
Previous Opponent: Atlanta
Upcoming Opponent: Indianapolis
Advice: Once again, because of the bye week issue, Rodgers should be ranked higher. He would be the 3rd overall QB based on average PPG alone. After posting his highest fantasy score of the year last week versus Atlanta, A-Rod now faces the Colts' defense which ranks 27th in PPG, 29th in YPG, 30th in Passing YPG, and 21st in Rushing YPG. Rodgers is a top-3 QB option this week.
7. Andy Dalton
Total Points: 140 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 17.5
TD-TO Ratio: 11-4
Previous Opponent: Washington
Upcoming Opponent: BYE, then NYG
Advice: Cincinnati is coming up on their bye week. Afterwards, Dalton will face a New York defense ranked 10th in PPG, 17th in YPG, 22nd in Passing YPG, and 11 in Rushing YPG. This middle-of-the-road defense won't present the biggest challenge in the world to the team, and the Red Rifle should put up another 17-18 points against them.
8. Kirk Cousins
Total Points: 136 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 17
TD-TO Ratio: 13-8
Previous Opponent: Cincinnati
Upcoming Opponent: BYE, then Minnesota
Advice: Washington is also coming up on their bye week. Afterwards, Cousins will face a strong Minnesota defense ranked 1st in PPG, 2nd in YPG, 4th in Passing YPG, and 9th in Rushing YPG. This challenge may be too much for Kirk, as he commits too many turnovers, and his running game does too. Consider another streaming option that week.
9. Marcus Mariota
Total Points: 135 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 16.9
TD-TO Ratio: 15-9
Previous Opponent: Jacksonville
Upcoming Opponent: San Diego
Advice: Mariota could have had huge numbers last week versus the Jaguars, but was basically done with the game by halftime considering the score. The Chargers' defense ranks 24th in PPG, 18th in YPG, 23rd in Passing YPG, and 6th in Rushing YPG. The stats don't tell the whole story, since the defense has actually become semi-good since Joey Bosa got on the field. Nonetheless, these games tend to turn into shoot-outs, and Mariota has been miles better in the last few weeks. He should be considered a strong play.
10. Tyrod Taylor
Total Points: 131 (as of 11/2/2016)
Average PPG: 16.4
TD-TO Ratio: 12-3
Previous Opponent: New England
Upcoming Opponent: Seattle
Advice: This is a difficult stretch for the Bills. Nobody wants to play the Patriots and then play the Seahawks the week afterwards. The Seahawks' defense currently ranks 2nd in PPG, 6th in YPG, 9th in Passing YPG, and 7th in Rushing YPG. Seattle has some major injuries on the defensive side of the ball (looking at you, Michael Bennett), but Shady McCoy may not be up to speed for the Bills either. Find another option if possible this week.
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