Congratulations to all the newly-anointed champions out there, you master drafters and waiver-wire addicts.
And if you won the esteemed "toilet bowl trophy
", well, you gave it your best shot!Or gave up halfway through the season.
Either way, you tried, and that counts for something: as they say, "losing in your fantasy football league builds character" or whatever.
Some say "the only thing we learn from history is that we never learn from history": let's be the people who do learn from history, and use it to forge ahead to better fantasy football draft decisions.
This article will consider the top wide receivers from this season: the dramatic (and yet often underrated) playmakers of NFL offenses.
STATISTICS NOTE:
One interesting observation comes from comparing a player's top games (half of the games the player participated in) versus his lowest-scoring games (the other half of the games the player participated in).
The resulting differential shows the average variance between a poor showing and a great game: in other words, it is a "consistency differential" in fantasy football.
The smaller the resulting number, the more consistent the player's scores (on average).
EQUATION: (the top half of a player's fantasy scores)/(number of games) - (the bottom half of a player's fantasy scores)/(number of games) = consistency differential
As an FYI, when a player plays in an odd number of games, his median score (middle number) is divided in half, and each half of a player's fantasy scores (top and bottom) is divided by another half-game.
Jordy Nelson
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 200
2. Reception Yards: 1,257
3. Receptions: 97
4. Reception TD's: 14
5. Targets: 152
6. Fumbles: 1
Hot Take(s)
It's good to be the #1 receiver on a team with Aaron Rodgers.
Tied with Mike Evans as the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided 12.5 fantasy points per game (PPG) on average.
Despite the dud in week 7 (and the poor showings in week 6 and 17 as well), he generally provided a nice floor, scoring over 12 points in nine of the season's games.
Jordy's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (27+22+18+17+16+15+15+13)/8 - (12+9+9+9+8+6+4+0)/8
SIMPLIFY: (143)/8 - (57)/8
SIMPLIFY: 17.875 - 7.125
RESULT: 10.75
This represents an average difference of 10.75 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Nelson.
Nelson led all wide receivers with 14 receiving touchdowns, and ranked top-10 in receptions, receiving yards, and targets: despite his age, as long as A-Rod is throwing the ball, he is worth a fantasy draft investment.
Mike Evans
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 200
2. Reception Yards: 1,321
3. Receptions: 96
4. Reception TD's: 12
5. Targets: 175
6. Fumbles: 0
Hot Take(s)
Evans was a target machine this year, and didn't struggle nearly as much as last season with the dreaded "dropsies".
Tied with Jordy Nelson as the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided an average of 12.5 fantasy PPG.
His floor was higher than Nelson's, scoring at least 4 fantasy points in all matchups, and he scored 10 or more points in ten of the season's games.
Mike's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (27+22+21+19+15+15+14+13)/8 - (12+10+7+6+5+5+5+4)/8
SIMPLIFY: (146)/8 - (54)/8
SIMPLIFY: 18.25 - 6.75
RESULT: 11.5
This represents an average difference of 11.5 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Evans, slightly larger than Nelson's.
Evans led all wide receivers with 175(!!!) targets in the passing game, and ranked top-10 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns: he has nowhere to go but up, and will be worth a high pick next season.
Antonio Brown
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 193
2. Reception Yards: 1,284
3. Receptions: 106
4. Reception TD's: 12
5. Targets: 155
6. Fumbles: 0
Hot Take(s)
One of the top two WR's drafted this past year, Brown returned good value for his draft status.
Ending the year as the 3rd-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided 12.9 fantasy PPG on average.
This comes despite not playing in the last game of the season, and he hit double-digit points in ten of the fifteen games he did participate in.
Antonio's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (27+24+21+18+15+14+14+6.5)/7.5 - (11+11+7+7+6.5+5+3+3)/7.5
SIMPLIFY: (139.5)/7.5 - (53.5)/7.5
SIMPLIFY: 18.6 - 7.13
RESULT: 11.47
This represents an average difference of 11.47 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Brown: his is the first example in which his median score (middle number) is divided in two in order to keep the equation balanced.
Brown is one of two receivers ranked in the top-5 in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and targets: his fantasy draft status should never be in question.
Odell Beckham Jr.
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 188
2. Reception Yards: 1,367
3. Receptions: 101
4. Reception TD's: 10
5. Targets: 169
6. Fumbles: 1
Hot Take(s)
OBJ started off without scoring for the first four games of the season, but blew up after that.
Ending the year as the 4th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided 11.8 fantasy PPG on average.
After the bye week in week 8, he found the end zone seven times in nine games and also scored double-digit fantasy weeks in seven of those nine games.
Odell's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (32+21+16+15+15+15+12+12)/8 - (11+10+8+7+4+4+4+2)/8
SIMPLIFY: (138)/8 - (50)/8
SIMPLIFY: 17.25 - 6.25
RESULT: 11
This represents an average difference of 11 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Beckham, between Nelson's, Evans', and Brown's.
OBJ is one of two receivers ranked in the top-5 in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and targets: he should continue to be in high demand.
T.Y. Hilton
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 176
2. Reception Yards: 1,448
3. Receptions: 91
4. Reception TD's: 6
5. Targets: 156
6. Fumbles: 0
Hot Take(s)
Hilton was one of the least consistent top-10 wide receivers, and that's saying something.
Ending the year as the 5th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, he provided an average of 11 fantasy PPG.
He scored double-digit points in exactly half of the games this season, which lends credence to his inconsistent fantasy reputation.
Hilton's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (23+23+19+17+15+14+12+10)/8 - (9+8+7+5+4+4+4+2)/8
SIMPLIFY: (133)/8 - (43)/8
SIMPLIFY: 16.625 - 5.375
RESULT: 11.25
This represents an average difference of 11.25 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Hilton, up there with the spread that Brown and Evans have, but without quite the same ceiling.
Hilton led all receivers in receiving yards, and was targeted the 4th-most of all receivers, which explains his 15.9 yards per catch: a top-10 finish in that category.
Julio Jones
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 170
2. Reception Yards: 1,409
3. Receptions: 83
4. Reception TD's: 6
5. Targets: 129
6. Fumbles: 0
Hot Take(s)
Matt Ryan has played at such a high level this year that he didn't necessarily need his #1 wideout to be overloaded with targets in every game.
Ending the year as the 6th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Jones provided an average of 12.1 fantasy PPG, which is actually higher than OBJ or T.Y. Hilton's average.
He was held out of two games this season, and the Falcons utilized other weapons effectively, yet Julio still had nine games where he scored double-digit fantasy points.
Julio's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (36+19+17+17+16+15+13)/7 - (12+11+6+3+2+2+1)/7
SIMPLIFY: (133)/7 - (37)/7
SIMPLIFY: 19 - 5.286
RESULT: 13.714
This represents an average difference of 13.714 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Jones, the biggest spread of all top receivers: his record-breaking 36-point fantasy game against Carolina in week 4 contributes to the large differential.
Julio still ended up with the 2nd-most yardage of all receivers, ranked 4th in yards per catch, and had a higher catch rate than Jordy Nelson: he may not be perfect, but he returned value.
Davante Adams
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 166
2. Reception Yards: 997
3. Receptions: 75
4. Reception TD's: 12
5. Targets: 121
6. Fumbles: 1
Hot Take(s)
This was not a name many expected to end up in the top-10 fantasy receivers at the beginning of the season, but Aaron Rodgers was able to put two receivers on that list.
Ending the year as the 7th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Adams provided an average of 10.38 fantasy PPG.
Much of his value came from his 12 touchdowns, and he had nine games where he scored double-digit fantasy points.
Davante's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (25+23+17+16+15+14+11+10)/8 - (10+8+7+4+3+2+1+0)/8
SIMPLIFY: (131)/8 - (35)/8
SIMPLIFY: 16.375 - 4.375
RESULT: 12
This represents an average difference of 12 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Adams.
This is his third year in the league (with a 2nd-round NFL draft pedigree), and he just set new career highs in receptions, targets, yards, touchdowns, yards per catch, and basically everything else: expect Adams's fantasy draft stock to continue to inflate throughout the off-season.
Brandin Cooks
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 159
2. Reception Yards: 1,173
3. Receptions: 78
4. Reception TD's: 8
5. Targets: 117
6. Fumbles: 0
Hot Take(s)
The Saints' wide receivers trade off big games with each other, so it's no surprise that Cooks had one of the highest ceilings and lowest floors of all wideouts this season.
Ending the year as the 8th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Cooks provided 9.94 fantasy PPG on average.
He only scored double-digit fantasy points in six games, while he had a true dud in week 12 versus the Rams.
Brandin's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (30+27+23+15+11+10+9+7)/8 - (6+6+6+4+3+1+1+0)/8
SIMPLIFY: (132)/8 - (27)/8
SIMPLIFY: 16.5 - 3.375
RESULT: 13.125
This represents an average difference of 13.125 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Cooks, the 2nd-largest margin of the top receivers.
This is his third year in the league (he was drafted 20th overall by the Saints in 2014), and though he broke the 1,000-yard mark last year, he actually had more yards and a higher average yards-per-catch this season, though his receptions and targets were down: his fantasy draft value may go down due to the rise of Michael Thomas.
Michael Thomas
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 157
2. Reception Yards: 1,137
3. Receptions: 92
4. Reception TD's: 9
5. Targets: 122
6. Fumbles: 2
Hot Take(s)
The second receiver working with Drew Brees on this list, Thomas was pegged as a sleeper at the beginning of the fantasy season and played above his hype level.
Ending the year as the 9th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Thomas provided 10.47 fantasy PPG on average, which is actually higher than his counterpart Cooks.
He scored double-digit fantasy points on eight occasions, but zeroed out in week 10 (versus Denver) and didn't play in week 14 (versus Tampa Bay).
Michael's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (22+21+19+13+13+13+11+5.5)/7.5 - (10+6+6+5.5+5+5+4+0)/7.5
SIMPLIFY: (117.5)/7.5 - (41.5)/7.5
SIMPLIFY: 15.67 - 5.53
RESULT: 10.14
This represents an average difference of 10.14 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Thomas, the lowest differential of the top-10 fantasy wide receivers this year.
Considering this is his first year in the league, the bar has been set pretty high: as long as he avoids the dreaded "sophomore slump", he could reach the top-10 for years to come.
Doug Baldwin
1. Fantasy Points (ESPN Standard): 152
2. Reception Yards: 1,128
3. Receptions: 94
4. Reception TD's: 7
5. Targets: 126
6. Fumbles: 0
Hot Take(s)
Baldwin continued building on last year's successful season and worked his way into the top-10 scoring fantasy wideouts this year.
Ending the year as the 10th-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football, Baldwin provided an average of 9.5 fantasy PPG.
He only scored double-digit fantasy points on five occasions, which (admittedly) was disappointing.
Angry Doug's "consistency differential" looks like this:
EQUATION: (23+23+22+15+14+9+8+6)/8 - (6+5+5+4+4+3+3+2)/8
SIMPLIFY: (120)/8 - (32)/8
SIMPLIFY: 15 - 4
RESULT: 11
This represents an average difference of 11 fantasy points between a good game and a bad game for Baldwin, representing production slightly less consistent (on average) than Jordy Nelson and Michael Thomas, but tied with OBJ (and more consistent than the rest of the top-10 fantasy receivers).
Baldwin was one of five wideouts to throw a TD pass this year, and ended the season with the 4th-best catch rate among wide receivers: if the Seahawks' O-line woes are finally addressed this off-season, and if Wilson stays healthy, he could move further into the top-10 fantasy receivers next year.
