Sunday, May 21, 2017

Stock Down: Five Quarterbacks (Whose Situations Are Generally Terrible)

The NFL Draft is done, and teams are celebrating their new team additions.

Some teams struck gold, some teams only struck fool's gold, and some teams struck out entirely.

Today, we're looking at five quarterbacks whose situations are generally terrible for fantasy football purposes this year: wait to draft them till the later rounds, or don't draft them at all.

Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: David Johnson, Andre Ellington
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, J.J. Nelson, Chad Williams
TE: Jermaine Gresham

When talking about Palmer, there is a great divide between who he has been as a fantasy football draft choice in past years, and who he is today.
For example, after a fantastic fantasy season in 2015 (5th highest-scoring QB), he fell back down to earth last year (19th highest-scoring QB) due, in part, to his age beginning to catch up to him: this can also be seen in his completion percentage, which was his lowest since 2011 (61%).
We've seen this before with big names (Peyton Manning being the most recent), and with reports coming out of confidence declining in the Cardinal's quarterback situation from inside and outside the organization, it may be best to stay away.

Additionally, for fantasy football purposes, David Johnson will again be the focus of this offense, and since Palmer's arm may be weakening, he likely won't be hitting those deep balls that led to his stellar 2015 fantasy season.

Sam Bradford (Minnesota Vikings)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Dalvin Cook
WR: Stefon Diggs, Michael Floyd, Adam Thielen, Laquon Treadwell
TE: Kyle Rudolph

Sam Bradford is the epitome of a solid talent who never really reaches his potential, in this case due to a lengthy (and constant) battle with injuries.
Statistically, last season was the best of his career: he set personal bests in passing yards (3,877), led the league in completion percentage (71.6%), had his highest yards-per-attempt to date (7.02 YPA), and achieved a new best Passer Rating (99.3).
Nonetheless, that didn't translate into a good fantasy season (23rd highest-scoring QB), he has only played in a full 16-game season twice in his career (2010, 2012), and the three-headed running back rotation this year will likely take the focus away from the passing game.

Also, as an important additional detail, his o-line isn't looking great: watch the film from last year, and realize there may not be many improvements in that area at all.

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: Danny Woodhead, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, Lorenzo Taliaferro
WR: Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman
TE: Benjamin Watson, Dennis Pitta, Maxx Williams

The Ravens are often regarded as an every-year competitor around the NFL, but this isn't looking good at all.
Flacco may have finally broken the 4,000 passing yards mark last year (4,317 yds) and set a new personal best in completion percentage (64.9%), but that can't make up for his pathetic supporting cast on offense.
Think about it: at running back, their leading pass-catching back is an oft-injured 30-something who has missed the majority of both the 2014 and 2016 seasons due to injury.
Their leading 2-down back is a cast-off from the Cleveland Browns (yikes).
The Ravens' top two wide receivers consistently struggle with drops, and no one knows who the other ones are (name one without looking them up, I dare you).

Finally, no one in fantasy trusts Watson or Pitta to stay healthy, and Williams has yet to show signs of life.
Stay away from Flacco in fantasy: this ain't his year.

Barkley/Hoyer/Beathard (San Francisco 49ers)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: Carlos Hyde, Tim Hightower, Joe Williams, Kapri Bibbs
WR: Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Jeremy Kerley, Bruce Ellington
TE: Vance McDonald

Everyone knows the 49ers are in rebuilding mode, and that's fine: in fact, if you're a fan of the team, you may be quite pleased with the draft results, which were impressive to say the least.
The issue from a fantasy football perspective is that it focused almost entirely on the defensive side of the ball, leaving the offensive shelves bare.
At the wideout position, Garcon is a 30-year-old #2 receiver, Goodwin is a one-trick-pony deep threat speedster, and Kerley/Ellington essentially play the same slot role.
McDonald is a good tight end, but he was not worth his contract extension (5 years/$35 million).

The strength of this offense is their running back stable, so look for the team to almost ignore whoever is under center in order to pound the ball more this season.

Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)

Notable Skill Position Players:
RB: Todd Gurley, Lance Dunbar
WR: Tavon Austin, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp
TE: Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee

I feel sorry for Goff: his supporting cast reads like a McDonald's catering menu at a black-tie affair.

Everything about the offense here is hurting: Goff is a good QB, and Gurley is a top-tier talent at RB, but they can't stay upright with the poor O-line in front of them.
Additionally, there are no true threats at the other skill positions: Austin is a punt returner playing wideout, Woods has never passed 700 yards receiving in his career, and Kupp is a rookie in the form of one of this year's third-round picks.
Also, Everett, though he was the Rams' top pick this year, is a rookie joining a recent 4th-round pick to complete this inexperienced tight end stable.


Don't look for much success on offense this year, and Goff should likely not be on any fantasy roster.
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