Thursday, July 27, 2017

2016 Fantasy Football Recap: Running Backs (Part 2)

In the second part of our running back recap series, we continue to dig deep into all the statistics around the top fantasy football running backs from the 2016 season.
The hope is that we'll uncover hints and clues that will help in predicting how well they will do this year.
Numbers may not show the whole picture, but they are revealing factors as it concerns these RB's.
All scores and point totals are based on ESPN Standard Scoring.


Devonta Freeman


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 33.5
Actual Fantasy Floor: 3.8
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 17.8

Observations:
1. With Freeman, we begin seeing more standard running back trends: he has some off weeks, and often surrounds those with fantastic weeks.
2. Freeman had two weeks where he scored more than 30 fantasy points, and had a higher actual fantasy ceiling than either McCoy or Murray: part of this may be due to age, since both of those RB's are approaching 30, and Freeman just turned 25 this offseason.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 25.3
Average Fantasy Floor: 10.3
Consistency Differential: 15

Observations:
1. Freeman has a higher average fantasy ceiling than Murray, but once again, this could be age-related or scheme-related as opposed to talent-related.
2. Freeman has the lowest average fantasy floor so far, but since it's still above ten points per game, he still provides real promise as an every-game starter.
3. Freeman does have the second-largest "Consistency Differential" so far, implying that he is not the most consistent fantasy 'back week-to-week, but that could lessen as he continues growing in Atlanta's offense.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 20.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 14.625 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 5.875

Observations:
1. One of the most interesting discoveries so far is that Freeman has the smallest "Opportunity Differential"; meaning, he was used more consistently on a per-game basis as compared to any of the top-5 RB's from last season.
2. Nonetheless, Freeman having a small "Opportunity Differential" and a large "Consistency Differential" means that he is the epitome of hot-and-cold, and his visual chart above seems to back this up.

Conclusion:
Devonta Freeman is a solid late-1st or early-2nd round pick in almost every redraft league, and gets a boost to his value in PPR leagues.

Melvin Gordon


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 36.1
Actual Fantasy Floor: 0.5
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 19.3

Observations:
1. Gordon is an interesting case: he finished the 2016 season as the #7 overall fantasy RB, but basically missed the last four games of the season with a hip injury.
2. As per usual, games in which Gordon did not touch the ball are not factored into his average fantasy PPG; however, his average goes up to 20.8 fantasy PPG if the week 14 game (where he only scored half a point due to the injury occurring early in the game) is factored out.
3. For comparison's sake, if his week 14 game is factored out, Gordon's average fantasy PPG ranks higher than Freeman, Murray, or McCoy: as it is, it still ranks higher than both Freeman and Murray.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 26.1
Average Fantasy Floor: 12.5
Consistency Differential: 13.6

Observations:
1. Once again, that week 14 game has a large impact on Gordon's averages: his average fantasy floor raises to almost 15 points without it, but his ceiling would only increase to 26.7, which would reduce his overall "Consistency Differential" by nearly two points.
2. Nonetheless, Gordon's "Consistency Differential" is still smaller than Johnson's, McCoy's, and Freeman's: as is the case with these top-tier 'backs, that fact is interesting and revealing, but not necessarily more useful than any other statistic by itself.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 28.7 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 16.7 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 12

Observations:
1. That week 14 game skews everything: if it's removed from these calculations, Gordon's average opportunity floor reaches 19.7, while his ceiling only goes up to 29, reducing his "Opportunity Differential" from 12 to 9.3.
2. Gordon's game with the least carries (and one of the few games where he did not catch a pass) was the first game of the season: he was a major point of the gameplan in every game, as shown by his average opportunity floor reaching nearly 20 touches per game (without week 14 skewing the numbers).

Conclusion:
Gordon actually has one of the highest ceilings of all running backs next season: if he had stayed healthy during the 2016 season, he likely would have been the #4 overall RB, and would have outscored McCoy, Murray, and Freeman in the process.

Mark Ingram


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 31.1
Actual Fantasy Floor: -1.5
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 15.1

Observations:
1. Though it doesn't happen often, Ingram was one of the few RB's to have a game where he scored negative points overall: -1.5 points in week 8 versus Seattle.
2. Ingram has the lowest actual fantasy floor so far, and also the lowest average fantasy PPG: he represents the first major divide between running backs who are commonly regarded in RB1 territory, and those regarded as RB2 options.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 23
Average Fantasy Floor: 7.3
Consistency Differential: 15.7

Observations:
1. Ingram's average fantasy ceiling isn't terrible, but his average fantasy floor kills his value in comparison to the other running backs so far: when he struggled in a game, it showed in a big way.
2. Interestingly enough, Ingram's "Consistency Differential" is the biggest so far: the difference between his average good game and average bad game (from a fantasy perspective) was huge.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 20.4 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 11 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 9.4

Observations:
1. Over twenty touches per game is good, but not great: Ingram was not as much of a workhorse as many of the other running backs listed prior.
2. Additionally, though Ingram's "Opportunity Differential" isn't the biggest so far, his average opportunity floor is the lowest to this point: eleven touches per game isn't optimal for a primarily non-pass-catching RB.

Conclusion:
Ingram was a solid high-end RB2 (and sometimes low-end RB1) last season, and finally played a whole season's worth of games: nonetheless, with the addition of Peterson this offseason, it looks more difficult for him to finish in that range again, though a low-end RB2 finish isn't out of sight.

LeGarrette Blount


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 26.4
Actual Fantasy Floor: 6.7
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 14.6

Observations:
1. Blount has the highest actual fantasy floor so far outside of the top three running backs, partially due to his surprisingly heavy usage as a short-yardage back and as a goal-line threat.
2. Blount's average fantasy PPG is the lowest yet, but I would almost have preferred to have him on my team over Ingram last season, given how consistent he was, and his relatively high floor.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 19.2
Average Fantasy Floor: 9.9
Consistency Differential: 9.3

Observations:
1. Since Blount only had three games where he scored more than 20 points, his average fantasy ceiling is definitely lower than any other RB so far: he isn't known for his explosive play-making ability.
2. On the other hand, Blount's "Consistency Differential" is the lowest of all running backs so far, meaning that he was good for around 10-20 fantasy points every game, regardless of matchup.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 22.4 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 15.9 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 6.5

Observations:
1. Consistent usage was Blount's biggest positive last year: his average opportunity floor was higher than both McCoy's floor and Freeman's floor.
2. Though he isn't a pass-catching back, an "Opportunity Differential" of 6.5 is tied with Murray for the smallest so far, meaning that he was used in every game, no matter the opponent.

Conclusion:
Blount is going from lead-back duties in New England to possible lead-back duties in Philadelphia: since they don't have the same caliber offense as the Patriots, he will likely regress outside the top-10 running backs next year.

Jordan Howard


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 30.2
Actual Fantasy Floor: 2.2
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 15.3

Observations:
1. Given that Howard didn't touch the ball once in week 1, that game is left out of all calculations, including his average fantasy PPG: this helps to explain why his average is higher than Blount's and Ingram's.
2. Howard only had five touches in the week 2 game against Houston when he was techincally still third on Chicago's depth chart, so it might be more fair to average out his fantasy PPG without that week's score considered: if that game is left out, his average fantasy PPG jumps to 16.1, almost a full point higher per game.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 21.2
Average Fantasy Floor: 9.5
Consistency Differential: 11.7

Observations:
1. Howard didn't end the season with a great average fantasy floor, partially due to games in week 2 and 7 where he was given minimal opportunities.
2. A "Consistency Differential" of 11.7 means Howard was a more consistent fantasy scorer than all top-10 running backs except Elliott, Murray, and Blount.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 24.2 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 13.3 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 10.9

Observations:
1. From week 8 onwards, Howard was used a minimum of 15 times per game, so the stats are a little skewed here: his average opportunity floor doesn't take into account when he became the full-time starter.
2. Similarly, Howard's "Opportunity Differential" would be much smaller if it was measured from week 8 onwards (or even from week 4 and afterwards) due to his role in the offense growing throughout the beginning of the season.

Conclusion:
Howard projects incredibly well for next season, despite the Bears being in relative chaos compared to other organizations: his stats during the second half of last season tell the story of a potential top-5 fantasy running back.

Thursday, July 6, 2017

2016 Fantasy Football Recap: Running Backs (Part 1)

In the first part of our running back recap series, we begin digging deep into all the statistics around the top fantasy football running backs from the 2016 season.
The hope is that we'll uncover hints and clues that will help in predicting how well they will do this year.
Numbers may not show the whole picture, but they are revealing factors as it concerns these RB's.
All scores and point totals are based on ESPN Standard Scoring.

NOTE: please refer to the previous article about statistics and fantasy football analysis to discover the background behind some of the following discussions.


David Johnson


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 38.5
Actual Fantasy Floor: 7.4
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 25.5

Observations:
1. Johnson only had one game below 10 fantasy points, which is insane: he rewarded those who took a chance on him last season.
2. Any player who has an average fantasy PPG above 20 is considered a sure-fire thing (and he isn't even a quarterback), so you definitely are considering him as a potential #1 overall pick next season.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 32.4
Average Fantasy Floor: 18.6
Consistency Differential: 13.8

Observations:
1. The fact that Johnson's average floor is nearly 20 points is ridiculous, and reveals how much of an outlier that last game was.
2. "Consistency Differential" is useful, but really has no bearing on the highest-scoring player in the game: he may not be the most consistent fantasy player to draft, but who cares? His floor is higher than most RB's ceilings!
3. This reveals an interesting note: "Average Fantasy Floor" is actually the stat that most people look at when they say they want a "consistent" player.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 29.125 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 17.5 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 11.625

Observations:
1. Johnson was a part of every gameplan, and was used in the passing game often.
2. When a low-usage game still involves a player getting more than 15 touches, there is no need to worry about him potentially losing opportunities.

Conclusion:
David Johnson will be the #1 overall draft pick in most redraft leagues this year, with good reason.

Ezekiel Elliott


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 40.9
Actual Fantasy Floor: 10.7
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 21.7

Observations:
1. Even though Elliott technically had a game where he scored 0 points (week 17), he didn't play a snap during it, and was listed as not participating prior to the game beginning, so it is not factored into his fantasy floor or fantasy PPG.
2. As proof of just how good Johnson is, even compared to a top-tier RB like Elliott, the difference in average fantasy PPG is nearly 4 points, which is huge.
3. Elliott may perform better in PPR leagues this year, however, since (1) Lance Dunbar (the Cowboys' pass-catching 'back) is no longer with the team, and (2) Elliott now has a full year of experience in this system.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 27.3
Average Fantasy Floor: 16.1
Consistency Differential: 11.2

Observations:
1. Week 10 was Elliott's week, as he scored 40.9 points, which is more than Johnson scored in any game last season; however, his average ceiling is lower than Johnson's, which means that score was a pretty big outlier.
2. Elliott's "Consistency Differential" is smaller than Johnson's, revealing that on average, Elliott was more a more consistent scorer from game; as mentioned previously, however, this does not mean he should surpass Johnson in draft status.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 27.1 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 20.1 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 7

Observations:
1. Since the Cowboys entire gameplan often revolved around a ball-control offense, it should come as no surprise that Elliott touched the ball 20-27 times per game on average.
2. Elliott will likely continue to see this type of workload going forward, especially given his immensely successful rookie year, so he is a good bet to increase his fantasy point total from this year.

Conclusion:
Elliott will be one of the first three picks in most redraft leagues, unless reported off-field concerns push him down some draft boards.

Le'Veon Bell


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 51.8
Actual Fantasy Floor: 13
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 26.5

Observations:
1. Similar to Elliott, even though Bell technically had a game where he scored 0 points (week 17), he didn't play a snap during it, and was listed as not participating prior to the game beginning, so it is not factored into his fantasy floor or fantasy PPG.
2. Bell is an interesting study: though he was suspended for the first three games of the season and didn't play in the last game, his average PPG is higher than Johnson's, and his actual fantasy floor is higher as well.
3. Some justify taking Bell over Johnson with the first pick, and it is understandable: if he can stay out of issues off the field and stay healthy on it, he has the potential for an even higher ceiling than Johnson has.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 33
Average Fantasy Floor: 19.9
Consistency Differential: 13.1

Observations:
1. Bell scored the most point of any RB in a single game last season with 51.8, where he gained 298 total yards and scored three touchdowns on 42 touches: insane totals all around.
2. Bell has a "Consistency Differential" similar to that of Johnson, but once again, it matters less when you're talking about one of the top-3 overall picks in this year's draft, considering how high his average fantasy floor is (higher than Johnson's).

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 33.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 22.5 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 11

Observations:
1. Part of the reason for Bell having a high average fantasy floor is his high average opportunity floor: in other words, if he generally touches the ball no less than 22 or 23 times a game, he has plenty of opportunities to score, and should be considered a true workhorse.
2. Bell's "Opportunity Differential" can mean that in a WR-heavy game plan (with a lot of Roethlisberger-Brown built in), he will see 11 less touches on average than in an RB-heavy game plan.

Conclusion:
Fantasy pundits often make a case for Bell as a potential #1 overall pick, and as long as he doesn't get hit with any suspensions or injuries, that's a legitimate consideration.

LeSean McCoy


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 33.2
Actual Fantasy Floor: 1.1
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 19.9

Observations:
1. Outside of Johnson, Elliott, and Bell, basically every other RB will have two or more "bust" weeks: in McCoy's case, these were weeks 7 and 17, where he scored 1.1. points and 2.6 points, respectively.
2. McCoy also had a week where he didn't touch the ball and scored 0 points, and once again, it isn't factored into his actual fantasy floor or average fantasy PPG.
3. Though McCoy will continue to be considered an RB1 for the upcoming fantasy season, with good reason, there is a large drop-off in terms of last year's statistics from the top three RB's and himself.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 27.6
Average Fantasy Floor: 12.2
Consistency Differential: 15.4

Observations:
1. "Bust weeks" play into McCoy's "Consistency Differential", which is the biggest one so far, meaning that he is the least consistent week-to-week fantasy running back thus far.
2. "Consistency Differential" is nice because it shows patterns of drop-offs due to age or injury, both of which are slowly creeping up on McCoy: he should have another season or two of RB1 in him, however.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 23.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 14.4 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 9.1

Observations:
1. McCoy was not used quite as much as the top three RB's last season, but that is reasonable given his age, and the fact that he was injured in a couple games.
2. He was still used almost 15 times on average in low-usage games, so he proved reliable as a workhorse once again: if a running back gets between 15 and 24 touches per game on average, he's worth a 1st or 2nd round pick in general.

Conclusion:
McCoy may not be a top-3 RB next season, but he is a solid option who still averaged between 12 and 28 points per game on average: don't be disappointed if he falls to you near the end of the 1st round in redraft leagues.

DeMarco Murray


Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 28
Actual Fantasy Floor: 2.9
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 18.4

Observations:
1. Murray's only true "bust" week was week 17, which is typical for many starting running backs prior to the playoffs.
2. Murray played in every game this season and never carried the ball less than 11 times in a game.
3. Murray may not have the ceiling of the other players, but any running back averaging over 18 PPG is still worth a pretty high pick in redraft leagues.

Average Fantasy Ceiling: 23.4
Average Fantasy Floor: 13.3
Consistency Differential: 10.1

Observations:
1. Murray has the smallest "Consistency Differential" so far, which makes him the most consistent week-to-week scorer of the top 5 running backs.
2. Notice that Murray's average fantasy floor is actually higher than McCoy's: this is where McCoy could be regarded as ever so slightly more of a high-risk, high-reward player than Murray.

Average Opportunity Ceiling: 24.9 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 18.4 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 6.5

Observations:
1. Murray actually had a higher average opportunity floor than both Johnson and McCoy last season, meaning that even in a low-usage game, he still was a true bell-cow for the Titans.
2. Additionally, Murray has the smallest "Opportunity Differential" so far, making him (on average) the most consistent top 5 running back in terms of opportunity and fantasy points last season.

Conclusion:
Murray is approaching the dreaded age-30 cliff, and Derrick Henry is a young up-and-comer, but there may not be another offense in the NFL that runs the ball like the Titans: he will continue to be a solid RB1 at least through next season, as long as he stays healthy.