The hope is that we'll uncover hints and clues that will help in predicting how well they will do this year.
Numbers may not show the whole picture, but they are revealing factors as it concerns these RB's.
All scores and point totals are based on ESPN Standard Scoring.
NOTE: please refer to the previous article about statistics and fantasy football analysis to discover the background behind some of the following discussions.
David Johnson
Actual Fantasy Floor: 7.4
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 25.5
Observations:
1. Johnson only had one game below 10 fantasy points, which is insane: he rewarded those who took a chance on him last season.
2. Any player who has an average fantasy PPG above 20 is considered a sure-fire thing (and he isn't even a quarterback), so you definitely are considering him as a potential #1 overall pick next season.
Average Fantasy Ceiling: 32.4
Average Fantasy Floor: 18.6
Consistency Differential: 13.8
Observations:
1. The fact that Johnson's average floor is nearly 20 points is ridiculous, and reveals how much of an outlier that last game was.
2. "Consistency Differential" is useful, but really has no bearing on the highest-scoring player in the game: he may not be the most consistent fantasy player to draft, but who cares? His floor is higher than most RB's ceilings!
3. This reveals an interesting note: "Average Fantasy Floor" is actually the stat that most people look at when they say they want a "consistent" player.
Average Opportunity Ceiling: 29.125 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 17.5 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 11.625
Observations:
1. Johnson was a part of every gameplan, and was used in the passing game often.
2. When a low-usage game still involves a player getting more than 15 touches, there is no need to worry about him potentially losing opportunities.
Conclusion:
David Johnson will be the #1 overall draft pick in most redraft leagues this year, with good reason.
Ezekiel Elliott
Actual Fantasy Ceiling: 40.9
Actual Fantasy Floor: 10.7
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 21.7
Observations:
1. Even though Elliott technically had a game where he scored 0 points (week 17), he didn't play a snap during it, and was listed as not participating prior to the game beginning, so it is not factored into his fantasy floor or fantasy PPG.
2. As proof of just how good Johnson is, even compared to a top-tier RB like Elliott, the difference in average fantasy PPG is nearly 4 points, which is huge.
3. Elliott may perform better in PPR leagues this year, however, since (1) Lance Dunbar (the Cowboys' pass-catching 'back) is no longer with the team, and (2) Elliott now has a full year of experience in this system.
Average Fantasy Ceiling: 27.3
Average Fantasy Floor: 16.1
Consistency Differential: 11.2
Observations:
1. Week 10 was Elliott's week, as he scored 40.9 points, which is more than Johnson scored in any game last season; however, his average ceiling is lower than Johnson's, which means that score was a pretty big outlier.
2. Elliott's "Consistency Differential" is smaller than Johnson's, revealing that on average, Elliott was more a more consistent scorer from game; as mentioned previously, however, this does not mean he should surpass Johnson in draft status.
Average Opportunity Ceiling: 27.1 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 20.1 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 7
Observations:
1. Since the Cowboys entire gameplan often revolved around a ball-control offense, it should come as no surprise that Elliott touched the ball 20-27 times per game on average.
2. Elliott will likely continue to see this type of workload going forward, especially given his immensely successful rookie year, so he is a good bet to increase his fantasy point total from this year.
Conclusion:
Elliott will be one of the first three picks in most redraft leagues, unless reported off-field concerns push him down some draft boards.
Le'Veon Bell
Actual Fantasy Floor: 13
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 26.5
Observations:
1. Similar to Elliott, even though Bell technically had a game where he scored 0 points (week 17), he didn't play a snap during it, and was listed as not participating prior to the game beginning, so it is not factored into his fantasy floor or fantasy PPG.
2. Bell is an interesting study: though he was suspended for the first three games of the season and didn't play in the last game, his average PPG is higher than Johnson's, and his actual fantasy floor is higher as well.
3. Some justify taking Bell over Johnson with the first pick, and it is understandable: if he can stay out of issues off the field and stay healthy on it, he has the potential for an even higher ceiling than Johnson has.
Average Fantasy Ceiling: 33
Average Fantasy Floor: 19.9
Consistency Differential: 13.1
Observations:
1. Bell scored the most point of any RB in a single game last season with 51.8, where he gained 298 total yards and scored three touchdowns on 42 touches: insane totals all around.
2. Bell has a "Consistency Differential" similar to that of Johnson, but once again, it matters less when you're talking about one of the top-3 overall picks in this year's draft, considering how high his average fantasy floor is (higher than Johnson's).
Average Opportunity Ceiling: 33.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 22.5 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 11
Observations:
1. Part of the reason for Bell having a high average fantasy floor is his high average opportunity floor: in other words, if he generally touches the ball no less than 22 or 23 times a game, he has plenty of opportunities to score, and should be considered a true workhorse.
2. Bell's "Opportunity Differential" can mean that in a WR-heavy game plan (with a lot of Roethlisberger-Brown built in), he will see 11 less touches on average than in an RB-heavy game plan.
Conclusion:
Fantasy pundits often make a case for Bell as a potential #1 overall pick, and as long as he doesn't get hit with any suspensions or injuries, that's a legitimate consideration.
LeSean McCoy
Actual Fantasy Floor: 1.1
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 19.9
Observations:
1. Outside of Johnson, Elliott, and Bell, basically every other RB will have two or more "bust" weeks: in McCoy's case, these were weeks 7 and 17, where he scored 1.1. points and 2.6 points, respectively.
2. McCoy also had a week where he didn't touch the ball and scored 0 points, and once again, it isn't factored into his actual fantasy floor or average fantasy PPG.
3. Though McCoy will continue to be considered an RB1 for the upcoming fantasy season, with good reason, there is a large drop-off in terms of last year's statistics from the top three RB's and himself.
Average Fantasy Ceiling: 27.6
Average Fantasy Floor: 12.2
Consistency Differential: 15.4
Observations:
1. "Bust weeks" play into McCoy's "Consistency Differential", which is the biggest one so far, meaning that he is the least consistent week-to-week fantasy running back thus far.
2. "Consistency Differential" is nice because it shows patterns of drop-offs due to age or injury, both of which are slowly creeping up on McCoy: he should have another season or two of RB1 in him, however.
Average Opportunity Ceiling: 23.5 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 14.4 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 9.1
Observations:
1. McCoy was not used quite as much as the top three RB's last season, but that is reasonable given his age, and the fact that he was injured in a couple games.
2. He was still used almost 15 times on average in low-usage games, so he proved reliable as a workhorse once again: if a running back gets between 15 and 24 touches per game on average, he's worth a 1st or 2nd round pick in general.
Conclusion:
McCoy may not be a top-3 RB next season, but he is a solid option who still averaged between 12 and 28 points per game on average: don't be disappointed if he falls to you near the end of the 1st round in redraft leagues.
DeMarco Murray
Actual Fantasy Floor: 2.9
Average Fantasy PPG (points per game): 18.4
Observations:
1. Murray's only true "bust" week was week 17, which is typical for many starting running backs prior to the playoffs.
2. Murray played in every game this season and never carried the ball less than 11 times in a game.
3. Murray may not have the ceiling of the other players, but any running back averaging over 18 PPG is still worth a pretty high pick in redraft leagues.
Average Fantasy Ceiling: 23.4
Average Fantasy Floor: 13.3
Consistency Differential: 10.1
Observations:
1. Murray has the smallest "Consistency Differential" so far, which makes him the most consistent week-to-week scorer of the top 5 running backs.
2. Notice that Murray's average fantasy floor is actually higher than McCoy's: this is where McCoy could be regarded as ever so slightly more of a high-risk, high-reward player than Murray.
Average Opportunity Ceiling: 24.9 TPG (total touches per game)
Average Opportunity Floor: 18.4 TPG
Opportunity Differential: 6.5
Observations:
1. Murray actually had a higher average opportunity floor than both Johnson and McCoy last season, meaning that even in a low-usage game, he still was a true bell-cow for the Titans.
2. Additionally, Murray has the smallest "Opportunity Differential" so far, making him (on average) the most consistent top 5 running back in terms of opportunity and fantasy points last season.
Conclusion:
Murray is approaching the dreaded age-30 cliff, and Derrick Henry is a young up-and-comer, but there may not be another offense in the NFL that runs the ball like the Titans: he will continue to be a solid RB1 at least through next season, as long as he stays healthy.
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